ArticleJournal of gastrointestinal oncology2025
Global, regional, and national burden of liver cancer attributable to hepatitis B virus among middle-aged and older adults from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2035: results of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Article in Journal of gastrointestinal oncology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Liver cancer attributable to hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a malignant tumor of the liver caused by the HBV that imposes an enormous global health burden. This study examined the global, regional, and national trends in incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for liver cancer attributable to HBV in individuals aged 55 years and older from 1990 to 2021 and the projections to 2035. Methods: We obtained raw data according to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study and used estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to assess changes in age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates. The relationship between disease burden and sociodemographic indices (SDIs) was further analyzed. Finally, Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling was used to predict trends over the 14 years following 2021. Results: The global burden of liver cancer attributable to HBV among middle-aged and older adults remains substantial, with 127,408.8 incident cases reported in 2021, representing a 120.2% increase compared to 1990 levels. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) were 8.6, 8.0, and 191.5, respectively. There were significant differences between regions, with the highest burden in the middle SDI regions and the lowest in the low-middle SDI regions. The age-stratified analysis revealed a progressive increase in ASIR with advancing age, peaking at 10.49 in the 85 to 89-year group. The BAPC projections indicated that ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR will continue to decline globally in middle-aged and older adult patients with liver cancer attributable to HBV on a flat basis, with a reduced burden on society. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR of liver cancer attributable to HBV among adults aged 55 years and older showed a declining trend globally and nationally. However, the absolute number of cases continued to rise due to population growth and aging demographics. Moreover, the risk burden increased with age, and thus greater attention should be paid to liver cancer attributable to HBV in middle-aged and older adults.
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