Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41236661›Full record

ArticleAging clinical and experimental research2025

Global, regional, and National burden of falls among midlife women from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021.

Lang Wang, Yushuai Mi, Xianglin Zhu, Ziping Liu, Junjian Liu, Cheng Zhao, Shijun Zhao, Hao Liang, Jie Zhang, Tian Gao and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Aging clinical and experimental research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. The Role of Myeloperoxidase in Osteoarthritis and Its Potential Modulation by Resveratrol: An Integrated Study.FASEB journal : official publication of the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Lang Wang *Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The Second Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, 250033, Shandong, PR China.
Yushuai Mi *Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The Second Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, 250033, Shandong, PR China.
Xianglin Zhu *Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The Second Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, 250033, Shandong, PR China.
Ziping Liu *Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The Second Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, 250033, Shandong, PR China.
Junjian Liu *Department of Emergency Medical Center, The Second Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, 250033, Shandong, PR China.
Cheng ZhaoDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The Second Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, 250033, Shandong, PR China.
Shijun ZhaoDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The Second Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, 250033, Shandong, PR China.
Hao LiangDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The Second Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, 250033, Shandong, PR China.
Jie ZhangDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The Second Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, 250033, Shandong, PR China.
Tian GaoDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The Second Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, 250033, Shandong, PR China.
Yinlu DingDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The Second Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, 250033, Shandong, PR China. dingyinlu@126.com.

Funding

Development Center for Medical Science & Technology National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China W2018RY9
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDeclining estrogen in perimenopausal women reduces bone mineral density and increases bone fragility, elevating fall and fracture risk. This presents major challenges for patients and society, yet prior studies lack systematic analysis of this population. This study is the first to utilize mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) related to falls among perimenopausal women from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, and to conduct a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the evolving burden of falls in perimenopausal women from 1990 to 2021, as well as to project trends through 2050. This study offers key guidance for optimizing healthcare resource allocation, enhancing patient management, and developing targeted prevention and intervention strategies.

methodsThis study used GBD 2021 data to systematically analyze fall-related mortality, DALYs, age-standardized rates (ASRs), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) among perimenopausal women, examining their associations with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) at global, regional, and national levels. Joinpoint regression, decomposition, health inequality, and frontier analyses quantified trends, identified factors, and assessed disparities. This study also explored fall risk factors and utilized the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model to project global trends in fall burden among perimenopausal women from 2022 to 2050.

resultsBetween 1990 and 2021, global mortality attributable to falls among perimenopausal women surged by 116.99% (from 1.67 to 3.63 per 100,000), while DALYs increased by 38.31% (from 116.50 to 188.85 per 100,000). In contrast, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) declined by 7.00% (EAPC = - 0.30) and 14.62% (EAPC = - 0.56), respectively. Decomposition analysis identified population growth as the predominant contributor to the escalation in mortality (162.91%), while epidemiological changes were the main reason for the reduction (- 63.63%). Marked heterogeneity was observed across SDI strata: low-middle SDI regions exhibited the steepest rise in mortality (138.00%), whereas high-SDI regions achieved the most pronounced reduction in ASMR (- 21.18%). Notably, high-income North America experienced an 106.62% increase in ASMR. The 50-54-year age cohort consistently represented the highest global burden, with low bone mineral density emerging as the principal risk factor. Projections to 2050 suggest ongoing declines in ASMR and ASDR, yet the absolute burden is expected to remain elevated due to persistent demographic expansion.

conclusionsBetween 1990 and 2021, the global burden of falls among perimenopausal women has exhibited a persistent upward trend, and projections indicate that this burden will likely remain at a high level in the future. This alarming situation underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions. Identifying key risk factors for falls in perimenopausal women is essential for guiding the allocation of public health resources and formulating precise intervention strategies. It is imperative to implement nationwide, cost-effective measures, such as osteoporosis and fall risk screening, the promotion of exercise programs that enhance muscle strength and balance, and, where appropriate, consideration of pharmacological interventions (such as estrogen) to reduce fall risk. This intervention will significantly reduce the risk of falls and associated burdens among perimenopausal women.

Indexed as

Accidental FallsGlobal Burden of DiseaseDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleGlobal HealthHumansMiddle AgedPerimenopauseRisk FactorsDisability-adjusted life yearsFallsGlobal burden of disease 2021MortalityPerimenopause

Identifiers

PMID41236661
PMCPMC12618396

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.