Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41254208›Full record

ArticleNPJ digital medicine2025

Uncertainty-aware large language models for explainable disease diagnosis.

Shuang Zhou, Jiashuo Wang, Zidu Xu, Song Wang, David Brauer, Lindsay Welton, Jacob Cogan, Yuen-Hei Chung, Lei Tian, Zaifu Zhan and 4 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ digital medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Shuang ZhouDivision of Computational Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Jiashuo WangDepartment of Computer Science, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
Zidu XuSchool of Nursing, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Song WangDepartment of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
David BrauerDivision of Surgical Oncology, Department of Surgery, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Lindsay WeltonDivision of Surgical Oncology, Department of Surgery, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Jacob CoganDepartment of Medicine, Division of Hematology, Oncology and Transplantation, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Yuen-Hei ChungDivision of Cardiac Electrophysiology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Lei TianDepartment of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA.
Zaifu ZhanDepartment of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Yu HouDivision of Computational Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Mingquan LinDivision of Computational Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Genevieve B MeltonCenter for Learning Health System Sciences, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Rui ZhangDivision of Computational Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA. ruizhang@umn.edu.

Funding

Detecting synergistic effects of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions for AD/ADRDR01AG078154 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA · PI HUA XU, RUI ZHANG · 2022 to 2026
$4.2M
A Translational Informatics Framework to Mine Efficacy and Safety of Dietary SupplementsR01AT009457 · NCCIH · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA · PI RUI ZHANG · 2017 to 2026
$4.1M
SCH: A New Computational Framework for Learning from Imbalanced Biomedical DataR01CA287413 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA · PI CUI, YING, SUN, JU · 2023 to 2025
$1.2M
NCCIH NIH HHS R01 AT009457NCCIH NIH HHS R01AT009457NCI NIH HHS R01 CA287413NCI NIH HHS R01CA287413NIA NIH HHS R01 AG078154NIA NIH HHS R01AG078154
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Explainable disease diagnosis, which leverages patient information (e.g., symptoms) and computational models to generate probable diagnoses and reasoning, holds strong clinical promise. Yet, when clinical notes lack sufficient evidence for a definitive diagnosis, such as the absence of definitive symptoms, diagnostic uncertainty commonly arises, increasing the risk of misdiagnosis. Despite its importance, the explicit identification and explanation of diagnostic uncertainty remain under-explored in artificial intelligence-driven systems. To fill this gap, we introduce ConfiDx, an uncertainty-aware large language model fine-tuned with diagnostic criteria. We formalized the task of uncertainty-aware diagnosis and curated richly annotated datasets that reflect varying degrees of diagnostic ambiguity. Evaluating on real-world datasets demonstrated that ConfiDx excelled in identifying diagnostic uncertainties, achieving superior diagnostic performance, and generating trustworthy explanations for diagnoses and uncertainties. Moreover, ConfiDx-assisted experts outperformed standalone experts by 10.7% in uncertainty recognition and 26% in uncertainty explanation, underscoring its substantial potential to improve clinical decision-making.

Identifiers

PMID41254208
PMCPMC12627459

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.