ArticleBMC public health2025
The burden of diabetes nephropathy in China from 1990 to 2021, with forecast to 2036: an analysis from the global burden of disease study 2021.
Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- [Burden of Diabetic Kidney Disease at Global, Regional, and National Levels From 1990 to 2021].Sichuan da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Sichuan University. Medical science edition · 2026Article
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5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundAmid rising diabetes prevalence, the burden of diabetes-related chronic kidney disease (DKD) is escalating, particularly in China. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological trends of DKD in China and develop a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to predict its incidence from 2022 to 2036.
methodsData from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) were used to assess DKD's burden in China between 1990 and 2021, including age-standardized incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). BAPC models were applied to evaluate age, period, and cohort effects and to project future trends.
resultsBetween 1990 and 2021, the ASIR for chronic kidney disease due to diabetes mellitus type 1 (DKD1) decreased (annual percent change (APC) = -0.57, P < 0.001), while ASPR increased (APC = 1.25, P < 0.001). ASMR and DALYs both declined (APC = -1.98, P < 0.001; APC = -1.99, P < 0.001). For chronic kidney disease due to diabetes mellitus type 2 (DKD2), ASIR slightly increased (APC = 0.44, P < 0.001), but both ASPR and ASMR decreased (APC = -0.23, P = 0.004; APC = -0.56, P < 0.001). Projections suggest an increase in DKD2 incidence and declining incidence for DKD1 by 2036.
conclusionsThis study provides insights into the trends of DKD burden in China over the past three decades. The BAPC offers a reliable forecast for the next 15 years, aiding future research to reduce DKD's impact in China.
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