Evidence mapPaperPMID 41322211Full record

ArticleFrontiers in medicine2025

Development of a machine learning-based predictive model for osteoporosis risk and its application in clinical decision support.

Zichen Shao, Jianfeng Wu, Qinqin Deng, Ling Cheng, Xin Huang, Weikang Sun, Weidong Liang, Huanan Li

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Zichen ShaoJiangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China.
Jianfeng WuAffiliated Hospital of Jiangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China.
Qinqin DengJiangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China.
Ling ChengJiangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China.
Xin HuangJiangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China.
Weikang SunJiangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China.
Weidong Liang *Affiliated Hospital of Jiangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China.
Huanan Li *Affiliated Hospital of Jiangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Objective: This study was aimed at developing an interpretable machine learning model for predicting osteoporosis (OP) risk using real-world clinical data, and at establishing a web-based visualization tool for assisting clinical decision-making. Methods: A total of 5,328 individuals from the Affiliated Hospital of Jiangxi University of Chinese Medicine (2015-2024) were included. Multidimensional data, including demographic characteristics, anthropometric measures, lumbar spine bone mineral density (L1-L4), and more than 90 blood biochemical and inflammatory markers, were collected. Key variables were identified using univariate analysis followed by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Five machine learning algorithms-Decision Tree, Random Forest, XGBoost, CatBoost, and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP)-were developed and compared. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis was conducted to enhance model interpretability, and a web-based tool was subsequently developed based on the best-performing model. Results: Five key predictive variables-age, sex, body mass index (BMI), uric acid (UA), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP)-were ultimately selected. Among the five models evaluated, the Random Forest model achieved the highest AUC (0.759) in the test set, demonstrating moderate discriminative performance and good model stability. SHAP analysis revealed that BMI contributed most to the model's predictions, while increased age, female sex, elevated ALP, and reduced UA were associated with a higher risk of osteoporosis. Based on this model, a web-based tool was developed to enable individualized risk prediction and feature-level visualization, providing a quantitative reference for clinical risk assessment. Conclusion: The osteoporosis prediction model developed in this study achieved quantitative risk estimation and interpretable outputs using a limited set of features, providing a feasible technical approach for early screening of osteoporosis. Future work should focus on external validation and recalibration in multicenter populations to further evaluate and optimize the model's predictive performance and clinical applicability.

Indexed as

clinical decision supportLASSO regressionmachine learningosteoporosisRandom ForestSHAP

Identifiers

PMID41322211
PMCPMC12657420

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.