Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41328676›Full record

ArticleAlimentary pharmacology & therapeutics2026

Hepatitis B Virus RNA Predicts Hepatocellular Carcinoma Despite Viral Suppression.

Takashi Kumada, Hidenori Toyoda, Satoshi Yasuda, Yuichi Koshiyama, Takanori Ito, Tomoyuki Akita, Junko Tanaka

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Alimentary pharmacology & therapeutics, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Takashi KumadaDepartment of Nursing, Faculty of Nursing, Gifu Kyoritsu University, Gifu, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2211-495X
Hidenori ToyodaDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Ogaki Municipal Hospital, Gifu, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1652-6168
Satoshi YasudaDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Ogaki Municipal Hospital, Gifu, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2266-2414
Yuichi KoshiyamaDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Ogaki Municipal Hospital, Gifu, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0006-1247-1215
Takanori ItoDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2594-0854
Tomoyuki AkitaDepartment of Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Control, and Prevention, Hiroshima University Institute of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1056-3611
Junko TanakaDepartment of Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Control, and Prevention, Hiroshima University Institute of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5669-4051

Funding

Roche Diagnostics Japan
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDespite achieving undetectable hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels with nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) therapy, patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) remain at risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Novel covalently closed circular DNA activity biomarkers may improve risk stratification.

aimsTo comprehensively assess the association between serum HBV RNA and hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) levels, measured upon achieving undetectable HBV DNA levels, and subsequent HCC development in NA-treated patients with CHB.

methodsWe retrospectively analysed 311 patients with CHB who achieved undetectable HBV DNA levels during NA therapy between 2000 and 2024. Serum HBV RNA (≥ 10 copies/mL) and HBcrAg (≥ 2.1 log U/mL) were measured in stored samples collected when HBV DNA first became undetectable. Cox regression analysis was performed to identify the factors associated with HCC development.

resultsDuring a median follow-up of 11.0 years, 31 (10.0%) patients developed HCC. At viral suppression, 132 (42.4%) patients had HBV RNA ≥ 10 copies/mL. HCC incidence was significantly higher in patients with quantifiable HBV RNA than in those with unquantifiable HBV RNA (15-year incidence, 17.8% vs. 8.8%, p = 0.026). Quantifiable HBV RNA independently predicted HCC (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 3.313; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.154-9.507; p = 0.026). HBcrAg showed no association (aHR, 0.821; 95% CI: 0.253-2.669; p = 0.743). Patients with quantifiable HBV RNA and albumin-bilirubin score ≥ -2.60 had the highest risk (5-year incidence: 15.8%).

conclusionsHBV RNA levels at viral suppression predict HCC development in NA-treated patients with CHB, outperforming HBcrAg. Incorporating HBV RNA assessment can improve risk-stratified HCC surveillance strategies.

Indexed as

Antiviral AgentsCarcinoma, HepatocellularHepatitis B, ChronicHepatitis B virusLiver NeoplasmsRNA, ViralAdultAgedDNA, ViralFemaleHepatitis B Core AntigensHumansMaleMiddle AgedRetrospective StudiesViral LoadAntiviral AgentsDNA, ViralHepatitis B Core AntigensRNA, Viralcovalently closed circular DNAhepatitis B core‐related antigenhepatitis B virus DNAhepatitis B virus RNAhepatocellular carcinomaNucleos(t)ide analogue

Identifiers

PMID41328676
PMCPMC13021286

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.