ArticleBMC gastroenterology2025
Global, regional, and national burden of NAFLD in adults aged 20-49 years (1990-2021): a comprehensive analysis of trends, decomposition, and health inequality.
Article in BMC gastroenterology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Association between metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease and risk of early-onset advanced colorectal neoplasia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of gastrointestinal oncology · 2026Article
- The interaction between chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) in a diverse central London population.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Knowledge and Determinants of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Among Adults in Northern Border Region, Saudi Arabia: A Cross-Sectional Study.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Divergent Trajectories of the Burden of MASLD Attributable to High Fasting Plasma Glucose in China and Globally: A GBD Study 1990-2021 and Projections to 2046.Gastroenterology research and practice · 2026Article
- Global comparison of breast cancer burden between women aged 20-54 and ≥55 years (1990-2021).Frontiers in oncology · 2025Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundNon-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a growing global health concern, particularly among adults aged 20-49 years. However, comprehensive assessments of its burden in this demographic remain limited.
methodsData from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study were analyzed, covering 204 countries from 1990 to 2021. Incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were examined, with results stratified by sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles. Trend, decomposition, and inequality analyses were conducted, and future projections for 2022-2050 were generated using Exponential Smoothing (ES) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models.
resultsIn 2021, NAFLD affected 48.31 million incident and 1.27 billion prevalent cases, causing 97,403 deaths and 2.67 million DALYs among adults aged 20-49. Both incidence and prevalence rose globally, with higher rates in males and the largest rises in middle-SDI countries, especially in Latin America and the Middle East. Forecasting models predict continued growth, especially among females, with a projected 60% increase in prevalence by 2050. Decomposition analysis showed that population growth was the primary driver, especially in middle and low-middle SDI regions, while epidemiological factors contributed more in high-SDI regions. Health inequality assessments revealed widening disparities, with the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) increasing, highlighting a greater burden in low-SDI countries.
conclusionNAFLD imposes a rising burden on adults aged 20-49 years globally, exacerbated by demographic shifts and socioeconomic disparities. Targeted interventions addressing obesity, metabolic health, and healthcare access are urgently required to mitigate this growing public health challenge.
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