Evidence mapPaperPMID 41355376Full record

ArticleCancer medicine2025

The Burden of Pancreatic Cancer in Five East Asian Countries From 1990 to 2021 and Its Prediction up to 2036: A Systemic Analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021.

Tianhao Guo, Wenjian Zhu, Yifan Hui, Yuhan Wang, Tingting Zhou, Weixing Shen, Liu Li, Yu Yang, Haibo Cheng

Abstract read
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Article in Cancer medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

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3citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

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2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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3 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Tianhao GuoInstitute of Health and Regimen, Jiangsu Open University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People's Republic of China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8899-2328
Wenjian ZhuJiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Traditional Chinese Medicine Prevention and Treatment of Tumor, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People's Republic of China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5292-661X
Yifan HuiJiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Traditional Chinese Medicine Prevention and Treatment of Tumor, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People's Republic of China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0364-9449
Yuhan WangInstitute of Health and Regimen, Jiangsu Open University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People's Republic of China.
Tingting ZhouWangjing Hospital of China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0007-3880-4935
Weixing ShenJiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Traditional Chinese Medicine Prevention and Treatment of Tumor, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People's Republic of China.
Liu LiJiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Traditional Chinese Medicine Prevention and Treatment of Tumor, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People's Republic of China.
Yu YangInstitute of Health and Regimen, Jiangsu Open University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People's Republic of China.
Haibo ChengJiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Traditional Chinese Medicine Prevention and Treatment of Tumor, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People's Republic of China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3329-2225

Funding

General project of Universities' philosophy and social science in Jiangsu Province 2024SJYB0564Innovation Team and Talents Cultivation Program of National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine ZYYCXTD-C-202208NATCM's Project of High-level Construction of Key TCM Disciplines [2023]85National Key Research and Development Program of China 2022YFC3500200National Key Research and Development Program of China 2022YFC3500205Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province SJCX22_0706Qing Lan Project of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions [2023]27
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPancreatic cancer (PC) presents a significant challenge for prevention and treatment, posing a serious threat to the health and lives of patients. The five East Asian countries (China, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, and Mongolia) represent one of the most significant regions globally in terms of PC burden.

methodsWe retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 regarding the prevalence, incidence, mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with PC in these five East Asian countries from 1990 to 2021. We employed joinpoint, age-period-cohort (APC), and decomposition analysis methods to assess the epidemiological characteristics of PC. To project the future burden of PC through 2036, we applied two prediction models: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models.

resultsChina recorded the highest incidence, prevalence, mortality, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs among the five East Asian countries in both 1990 and 2021. Japan exhibited the highest age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized YLDs rate in both 1990 and 2021. Mongolia experienced significant increases in the number and rates of incidence, prevalence, death, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs from 1990 to 2021. The age group with the highest prevalence, incidence, mortality, YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs rates across the five East Asian countries was consistently those aged 70 and older. The incidence rate across the five countries is influenced by aging populations, surpassing global averages. Projections for 2030 and 2036 suggest that Japan will have the highest ASPR (13.23 in 2030 and 13.85 in 2036), ASIR (12.14 in 2030 and 12.53 in 2036), and ASMR (10.97 in 2030 and 11.39 in 2036) among the countries.

conclusionThe disease burden of PC in the five East Asian countries has steadily increased over the past three decades, particularly among older adults due to population aging.

Indexed as

Global Burden of DiseasePancreatic NeoplasmsAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAsia, EasternBayes TheoremCost of IllnessDisability-Adjusted Life YearsEast Asian PeopleFemaleHumansIncidenceJapanMaleMiddle Agedage‐period‐cohort analysisdisease burdenepidemiological studyGlobal Burden of Disease Studyjoinpoint regressionpancreatic cancer

Identifiers

PMID41355376
PMCPMC12683073

What Socratic holds

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.