Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41388924›Full record

SynthesisCancer medicine2025

Cancer Risk Prediction Using Machine Learning for Supporting Early Cancer Diagnosis in Symptomatic Patients: A Systematic Review of Model Types.

Flavia Pennisi, Stefania Borlini, Hannah Harrison, Rita Cuciniello, Anna Carole D'Amelio, Matthew Barclay, Giovanni Emanuele Ricciardi, Georgios Lyratzopoulos, Cristina Renzi

Abstract readSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Cancer medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Outcomes That Matter in Gastrointestinal Cancer Care: A Focus Group Study of Patient-Centred Outcomes Identified by Patients and Care Partners.Health expectations : an international journal of public participation in health care and health policy · 2026
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  4. Review
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  6. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Flavia PennisiPhD National Programme in One Health Approaches to Infectious Diseases and Life Science Research, Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0001-9185-9747
Stefania BorliniSchool of Medicine, Università Vita-Salute San Raffaele, Milano, Italy.
Hannah HarrisonDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Rita CucinielloSchool of Medicine, Università Vita-Salute San Raffaele, Milano, Italy.
Anna Carole D'AmelioSchool of Medicine, Università Vita-Salute San Raffaele, Milano, Italy.
Matthew BarclayResearch Department of Behavioural Science and Health, Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, UK.
Giovanni Emanuele RicciardiPhD National Programme in One Health Approaches to Infectious Diseases and Life Science Research, Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy.
Georgios LyratzopoulosResearch Department of Behavioural Science and Health, Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, UK.
Cristina RenziSchool of Medicine, Università Vita-Salute San Raffaele, Milano, Italy.

Funding

Cancer Research UK EDDCPJT\100018
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionPredictive models could support clinicians in identifying patients who may benefit from cancer investigations. We aimed to examine published evidence on machine learning models (ML) developed to estimate cancer risk based on symptoms and other patient characteristics.

methodsUsing MEDLINE, Scopus, and EMBASE, we performed a systematic review of studies published in 2014-2024, which included data on signs/symptoms for cancer risk prediction. We used the QUADAS-AI tools to assess study quality. We performed a quantitative synthesis of diagnostic performance, including accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve (AUC). Adherence to TRIPOD guidelines was assessed.

resultsAmong the 5646 initially identified articles, 34 met inclusion criteria. Included studies most frequently examined lung (n = 9 studies), mesothelioma (n = 7), and gastrointestinal cancers (n = 4) and used hospital electronic health records (n = 8) or publicly available online datasets (n = 13). In addition to signs/symptoms (n = 34), most models included sociodemographic characteristics (n = 27) and lifestyle factors (n = 20). In 70% of studies, internal validation was performed. ML models demonstrated variable performance, with AUC values ranging from 0.60 to 1 during validation. Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, and Multilayer Perceptron showed the best predictive performance. Most of the studies (94.1%) had a high risk of bias for the index test.

conclusionML models have been reported to demonstrate potential in managing complex data for cancer risk prediction. However, the current evidence is heterogeneous and frequently limited by bias and incomplete reporting. Further validation and thorough assessments of real-world performance are necessary before these models can be considered reliable for clinical use.

trial registrationInternational Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) registration number: CRD42024548088.

Indexed as

Early Detection of CancerMachine LearningNeoplasmsHumansRisk Assessmentartificial intelligencecancerearly detection of cancermachine learningsigns and symptoms

Identifiers

PMID41388924
PMCPMC12701559

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.