ArticlePediatric research2025
Burden and risk factors of autism spectrum disorder: global study and analysis.
Article in Pediatric research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
backgroundAutism spectrum disorder (ASD) is increasingly prevalent globally, making it vital to understand its patterns and contributing factors.
methodsThis study utilized Global Burden of Disease 2021 data to analyze ASD trends from 1990-2021 and project to 2030. Mendelian randomization (MR) was used to investigate links between ASD and brain characteristics, metabolism, blood markers, and gut bacteria.
resultsHigh-income Asia Pacific countries, notably Japan (299.14 per 100,000), exhibit the highest age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates. Our findings also show that as countries advance socially and economically, reported ASD rates tend to be higher (ρ = 0.57). The overall global impact of ASD, measured in DALYs, is predicted to rise by nearly 59% by 2030, largely driven by population growth. The MR analysis suggested connections between ASD risk and specific factors like the size of certain brain areas (e.g., the right parahippocampal gyrus), levels of particular metabolic substances (e.g., methionine sulfone), and the presence of certain gut bacteria (e.g., Bacteroides).
conclusionsASD is a growing global health concern with unequal community impact. Identifying potentially modifiable factors related to brain health, metabolism, and gut bacteria offers important clues for developing better strategies for ASD prevention, early diagnosis, and support. IMPACT: Significant disparities in ASD burden exist, with the highest rates in high-income Asia Pacific nations. Global ASD-attributable disability is projected to increase by 2030, posing an urgent public health issue. Mendelian randomization suggests potential causal links between ASD risk and neural, metabolic, and gut microbiota factors. This study provides updated global burden estimates and systematically explores modifiable biological factors for ASD, moving beyond prior observational research. This study emphasizes the need for integrated strategies in ASD prevention, early detection, and intervention to address growing global burden.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.