Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41396809›Full record

ArticleAlcohol and alcoholism (Oxford, Oxfordshire)2025

Lab tests can be used to predict phosphatidylethanol-measured high-risk alcohol use among people with HIV: a proof-of-concept using machine learning.

C Espinosa da Silva, A Scheffler, R Fatch, W Muyindike, N I Emenyonu, J Adong, G Chamie, C Ngabirano, A Kekibiina, A Tumwegamire and 6 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Alcohol and alcoholism (Oxford, Oxfordshire), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

C Espinosa da SilvaDepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, 550 16th Street, San Francisco, CA, 94158, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1684-1616
A SchefflerDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco; 550 16th Street, San Francisco, CA, 94158, USA.
R FatchDepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, 550 16th Street, San Francisco, CA, 94158, USA.
W MuyindikeDepartment of Medicine, Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara-Kabale Highway, Plot 8-18, Mbarara City, Uganda.ORCID 0000-0002-6694-2645
N I EmenyonuDepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, 550 16th Street, San Francisco, CA, 94158, USA.
J AdongDepartment of Medicine, Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara-Kabale Highway, Plot 8-18, Mbarara City, Uganda.
G ChamieDepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, 550 16th Street, San Francisco, CA, 94158, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5860-8081
C NgabiranoMUST Grants Office, Mbarara University of Science & Technology, Plot 8-18 Kabale Road, Mbarara, Uganda.
A KekibiinaMUST Grants Office, Mbarara University of Science & Technology, Plot 8-18 Kabale Road, Mbarara, Uganda.
A TumwegamireMUST Grants Office, Mbarara University of Science & Technology, Plot 8-18 Kabale Road, Mbarara, Uganda.
K MarsonDepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, 550 16th Street, San Francisco, CA, 94158, USA.
B BeesigaInfectious Diseases Research Collaboration, IDRC - Mbarara Office, Ntare Road, off Nkokonjeru Junction, Mbarara, Uganda.
E KindoliInfectious Diseases Research Collaboration, IDRC - Mbarara Office, Ntare Road, off Nkokonjeru Junction, Mbarara, Uganda.
I E AllenDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco; 550 16th Street, San Francisco, CA, 94158, USA.
J A HahnDepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, 550 16th Street, San Francisco, CA, 94158, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2697-8264
Drinkers’ Intervention to Prevent Tuberculosis (DIPT) Study and the Alcohol Drinkers’ Exposure to Preventive Therapy for TB (ADEPT-T) Study

Funding

Biomarkers for Alcohol/HIV Research (BAHR) StudyR01AA029962 · NIAAA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI HAHN, JUDITH ALISSA · 2022 to 2024
$1.8M
NIAAA NIH HHS R01 AA029962NIAAA NIH HHS R01AA029962
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundUnhealthy alcohol use is prevalent among persons with HIV (PWH) and is associated with adverse outcomes, but is underestimated partly due to use of self-reported measures prone to underreporting. Phosphatidylethanol (PEth) is a direct measure of past month alcohol consumption but is costly. We assessed whether lab and health data representing alcohol-associated physiologic changes could be leveraged with machine learning to predict PEth-measured high-risk alcohol use among PWH.

methodsWe pooled baseline data from two studies among PWH in Uganda that measured PEth (N = 988), and classified PEth as no/low/moderate (PEth <200 ng/ml) or high-risk (PEth ≥200 ng/ml). We split the data into training (n = 790) and testing (n = 198) sets, imputing missing data separately for each. We conducted supervised learning with 29 predictors from lab (e.g. complete blood count, liver enzymes) and other health (e.g. age, sex, blood pressure) data using LASSO logistic regression, extreme gradient boosted decision trees, and random forests. We identified the optimal model via the largest area under the curve (AUC).

resultsA LASSO regression with 17 predictors was the optimal model (cross-validated AUC in the Training Set = 0.751, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.718-0.784; AUC in Testing Set = 0.795, 95% CI: 0.723-0.852).

conclusionsThis study suggests that a combination of lab and health data is useful for identifying individuals engaging in high-risk alcohol use (PEth ≥200 ng/ml). Algorithms including other indirect markers of alcohol use (e.g. gamma glutamyltransferase) may improve identification of high-risk alcohol use, which could be useful in research and clinical settings where PEth testing is unavailable.

Indexed as

Alcohol DrinkingAlcoholismGlycerophospholipidsHIV InfectionsMachine LearningAdultFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedProof of Concept StudyUgandaGlycerophospholipidsphosphatidylethanolalcohol biomarkersdetectionprediction toolscreening

Identifiers

PMID41396809
PMCPMC12704430

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.