ArticleFrontiers in endocrinology2025
Risk stratification and predictive value of glucose variability for the development of post-acute pancreatitis diabetes mellitus.
Article in Frontiers in endocrinology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: To assess whether glucose variability (GV) during acute pancreatitis (AP) predicts post-acute pancreatitis diabetes mellitus (PPDM-A), significantly affecting patient life quality. Methods: This study was performed during 2016-2020 at Jinling Hospital, with a 3-year follow-up for each patient. Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the association of GV with the possibility of developing PPDM-A. Dose-response relationships of GV with the three-year probability of PPDM-A were characterized based on a restricted cubic splines (RCS) model. GV was analyzed to predict the ability for PPDM-A by calculating area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs). Results: PPDM-A rates rose from 16% at one year to 27.3% at three years post-AP. Multivariate Cox analysis indicated that the largest amplitude of glycemic excursions (LAGE) exhibited independent association with an increased PPDM-A risk within 3 years (HR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.05-1.38, P <0.01). RCS results identified optimum LAGE threshold as 5.1, with significantly higher 3-year PPDM-A rates of abnormal LAGE group (LAGE ≥5.1 mmol/L) when compared with normal LAGE group (LAGE <5.1 mmol/L, P <0.001). AUCs for LAGE in predicting PPDM-A incidence in 12, 24, and 36 months were 0.883 (95% CI: 0.862-0.930), 0.916 (95% CI: 0.887-0.945), and 0.926 (95% CI: 0.895-0.948), respectively. Conclusions: LAGE in hospital stay accurately predicts PPDM-A. Further investigation plays an essential role in determining whether GV-targeting interventions can confer favorable clinical outcomes.
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