ArticleJournal of general internal medicine2025
Development of a Mortality Prediction Model for Incarcerated Adults to Identify Palliative Care Needs.
Article in Journal of general internal medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Association Between Hospital-Based Addiction Consult Service Implementation and Hospital Length-of-Stay and 30-Day Readmission Rates for Patients with Opioid Use Disorder.Journal of general internal medicine · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundEstimating mortality risk in incarcerated adults is important for identifying individuals who may benefit from palliative care and compassionate release referrals.
objectiveTo develop and internally validate a 2-year mortality prediction model in incarcerated adults.
designCohort study (February 1, 2018-February 1, 2020).
participantsIncarcerated adults aged ≥ 18 years residing at a California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) prison for ≥ 1 year. MAIN MEASURES: Model predictors included demographics (e.g., age, sex), housing status (general housing vs. higher acuity infirmary bed vs. lower acuity infirmary bed), functional assessment (level of mobility restriction), healthcare utilization (e.g., hospitalizations and intensive care unit admissions in the previous year), and chronic conditions. The primary outcome was natural death at 2 years, defined as death due to causes other than suicide, homicide, accidental injury, or drug overdose. Cox proportional hazards regression with LASSO for variable selection was used to develop the model. Model performance was assessed by discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) at 2 years) and calibration (plots of predicted and observed mortality). Classification metrics were assessed at clinically relevant thresholds. KEY
resultsThe final cohort included 89,430 adults (median age 40 years (interquartile range = 20), 10.2% ≥ 60 years, 30.6% Black, 41.4% Hispanic). At 2 years, 506 (0.6%) individuals experienced a natural death. The optimism-corrected AUC at 2 years after bootstrap internal validation was 0.926 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.915-0.938). The calibration plot at 2 years suggested good calibration. At a 2-year mortality risk threshold of 5%, sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value were 47.6% (95% CI = 42.3-51.6%), 98.4% (95% CI = 98.2-98.4%), and 16.7% (95% CI = 14.3-18.5%), respectively.
conclusionsThe mortality risk estimates from this model can help clinicians identify individuals who may most benefit from advance care planning discussions, palliative care services, and compassionate release referrals.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.