Evidence mapPaperPMID 41413518Full record

ArticleBMC public health2025

Cost-effectiveness analysis of surgical and non-surgical weight loss interventions in end-stage knee osteoarthritis and obesity: a Markov State model.

Simona Panunzi, Marcello Pompa, Sabina Maltese, Andrea De Gaetano, Laura D'Orsi, Stefan R Bornstein, Geltrude Mingrone, Esmeralda Capristo

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Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Simona Panunzi *Laboratorio di Biomatematica, CNR-IASI, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Analisi dei Sistemi ed Informatica A. Ruberti, Rome, Italy. simona.panunzi@cnr.it.
Marcello Pompa *Laboratorio di Biomatematica, CNR-IASI, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Analisi dei Sistemi ed Informatica A. Ruberti, Rome, Italy.
Sabina MalteseCNR-IRIB, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto per la Ricerca e l'Innovazione Biomedica, Palermo, Italy.
Andrea De GaetanoLaboratorio di Biomatematica, CNR-IASI, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Analisi dei Sistemi ed Informatica A. Ruberti, Rome, Italy.
Laura D'OrsiLaboratorio di Biomatematica, CNR-IASI, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Analisi dei Sistemi ed Informatica A. Ruberti, Rome, Italy.
Stefan R BornsteinDepartment of Medicine III, Universitätsklinikum Carl Gustav Carus an der Technischen Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany.
Geltrude Mingrone *Department of Diabetes, School of Cardiovascular Medicine & Sciences, Faculty of Life Sciences & Medicine, King's College London, London, UK.
Esmeralda Capristo *Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Rome, Italy.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe aim of the present study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of bariatric surgery, non-surgical weight loss and pharmacological non-surgical weight loss (BS-WL, NS-WL, PNS-WL) to avoid or delay total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in subjects with end-stage knee osteoarthritis and obesity.

methodsThe quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were computed using a Markov State Model simulating outcomes and costs in 4000 potential subjects followed for 25 years. Model inputs were derived from the literature and internet sources. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the model assumptions.

resultsBS-WL and PNS-WL increased QALYs from 7.70 (TKA-only group) to 8.96 and 8.41, respectively, while NS-WL marginally increased QALY to 7.86. The BS-WL and PNS-WL ICERs were $27,127 and $33,461, respectively, far below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000. However, the NS-WL ICER was $57,843. The percentage of subjects needing first revision was greater after TKA-only (26.4%) and lower with the other strategies (12.9% with BS-WL, 23.5% with NS-WL and 20.1% with PNS-WL). The most sensitive parameter was BS-WL success in weight loss; 20% of the key input parameter variations produced BS-WL ICERs that were always below the threshold, as for the PNS-WL strategy.

conclusionsBariatric surgery is effective and cost-effective in delaying or preventing TKA in patients with severe obesity and reducing the need for primary and secondary surgical revision. Despite current limitations on the long-term effects of available antiobesity medications, semaglutide appears to also be cost-effective, while non-surgical weight loss is the least effective strategy. Clinicians and policy makers should consider the cost-effectiveness of losing weight prior to total knee replacement in patients with obesity.

Indexed as

Bariatric SurgeryObesityOsteoarthritis, KneeWeight LossAgedArthroplasty, Replacement, KneeCost-Benefit AnalysisCost-Effectiveness AnalysisFemaleHumansMaleMarkov ChainsMiddle AgedQuality-Adjusted Life YearsBariatric surgeryMarkov state modelSemaglutideTotal knee arthroplasty

Identifiers

PMID41413518
PMCPMC12829240

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.