Evidence mapPaperPMID 41423607Full record

ArticleNutrition & metabolism2025

Machine learning-enhanced prediction model for atrial fibrillation development in patients with concurrent type 2 diabetes and obstructive sleep apnea syndrome: a comorbidity perspective.

Yanan Xu, Shoupeng Duan, Wenyuan Yin, Yi Yang, Xianlin Zhang, Jun Wang

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Article in Nutrition & metabolism, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

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3citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

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Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

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3 · Its place in the literature

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3 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Yanan Xu *Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University, Anhui, Bengbu, 233030, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5376-6291
Shoupeng Duan *Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430000, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0008-5281-4619
Wenyuan Yin *People's Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Electrocardiology Department, Urumqi, 830011, China.
Yi YangXinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, 830011, China. 644956539@qq.com.
Xianlin ZhangDepartment of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University, Anhui, Bengbu, China. zxlmas@163.com.
Jun WangHubei Clinical Medical Research Center for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease, Renmin Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, Hubei, 442000, Shiyan, China. junwang0607@163.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7863-0331

Funding

Anhui Provincial Health and Health Commission Scientific Research Project AHWJ2024Aa10053Clinical and Translational Research Project of Anhui Province 202427b10020086, 202427b10020089Research Funds of Joint Research Center for Regional Diseases of IHM 2024bydik001, 2024bydjk002, 2024bydjk005The Key Project of Natural Science Research of the Anhui Provincial Department of Education 2024AH051187Youth Embarking at Xinjiang Medical University 2022YFY-QKMS-08
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionAtrial fibrillation (AF) presents a considerable challenge in patients with Type 2 diabetes and obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS), as metabolic disturbance plays a role in the pathophysiological mechanisms that underlie arrhythmias.

objectiveThis study aimed to resolve this issue by developing a predictive nomogram using a machine learning algorithm, integrating a comprehensive range of clinical variables, including demographic data, laboratory findings, and sleep monitoring information.

methodsThis multicenter cohort study included patients with Type 2 diabetes who were scheduled for sleep monitoring for OSAS between January 2018 and December 2020. A predictive nomogram was developed using random forests and Cox regression analysis.

resultsWe utilized data from multiple hospitals to construct a development cohort comprising 417 participants and an independent validation cohort consisting of 245 participants. The nomogram was developed using four clinical variables: age, apnea-hypopnea index, triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, and TyG-body mass index (BMI). The areas under the curve values, derived from 500 bootstrap samples, were 0.862 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.813–0.910) for predicting AF in the development group and 0.843 (95% CI: 0.753–0.918) in the independent validation group. The nomogram exhibited excellent calibration, as indicated by the strong concordance between predicted and observed AF incidences at 2-, 3-, and 4-year follow-ups, validated through 500 bootstrap samples. Decision curve analysis further substantiated the clinical utility of the prediction nomogram at these intervals. Furthermore, a user-friendly interface has been developed to enhance usability for clinicians.

conclusionsThis predictive model highlights the critical role of insulin resistance, as evidenced by TyG and TyG-BMI surrogate markers, in the prognostic assessment and early risk stratification of patients with AF over 2-, 3-, and 4-year periods among patients with Type 2 diabetes and OSAS.

trial registrationThe trial was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR2300075727).

Indexed as

Apnea-hypopnea indexAtrial fibrillationInsulin resistanceMultivariable dataPrediction nomogram

Identifiers

PMID41423607
PMCPMC12751834

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.