A temporal-aware machine learning framework enables microbial community dynamics prediction with personalized precision.

backgroundAccurately forecasting the dynamic behavior of microbial communities from sparse longitudinal data remains a critical challenge for microbiome-based precision medicine and ecological monitoring. Most existing models depend on data interpolation and assume population-level dynamics, which limits their ability to capture personalized microbial changes in real-world scenarios.

resultsWe propose MicroProphet, a personalized temporal-aware framework capable of accurately forecasting microbial abundance trajectories from incomplete longitudinal observations without requiring data imputation. Powered by a time-aware Transformer architecture, MicroProphet reconstructs subject-specific microbial trajectories using only the initial 30% of observed time points, capturing critical transitional states through an attention mechanism. We demonstrated its robust cross-ecosystem generalizability across synthetic communities, human gut microbiomes, infant gut development, and corpse decomposition. The framework consistently achieves high predictive accuracy and biological interpretability. In clinical contexts, the framework enables early detection of disease-associated microbial shifts and supports timing optimization for microbiome-targeted interventions. In forensic settings, it accurately infers decomposition timelines from early microbial signals.

conclusionsBy transforming incomplete, noisy microbiome data into actionable, individualized forecasts, MicroProphet lays the foundation for a new class of temporal-aware systems in microbial ecology and precision health.