ArticleWorld journal of gastrointestinal surgery2025
Nomogram for prediction of six-month mortality following endovascular treatment of delayed post-pancreatectomy hemorrhage.
Article in World journal of gastrointestinal surgery, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundDelayed post-pancreatectomy hemorrhage (PPH) is life-threatening, and endovascular interventions show promise. This retrospective study aimed to evaluate endovascular treatment outcomes for delayed PPH and identify mortality risk factors.
aimTo conduct a single-center retrospective study of 88 patients with delayed PPH to systematically evaluate the clinical efficacy of endovascular treatment, identify independent risk factors for six-month mortality, and propose and validate a predictive model for individualized management of high-risk patients.
methodsThis retrospective analysis included 88 patients with delayed PPH treated by endovascular intervention. Patients were stratified into survival (
resultsTechnical and clinical success rates were 92.0% and 60.2%, respectively. The overall six-month mortality rate was 27.3% (24/88). Independent predictors of mortality included advanced age, prolonged operative time, shorter hospital stay, intra-abdominal infection, coagulation dysfunction, common hepatic artery bleeding, and failure to achieve clinical success. The nomogram demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.943), with good calibration and favorable net benefit on decision curve analysis.
conclusionWe proposed and validated a predictive nomogram for six-month mortality following endovascular treatment for delayed PPH. The model facilitates individualized risk stratification and may guide clinical decision-making. Early identification of high-risk patients - particularly older individuals or those with infection or coagulopathy - and prompt, personalized intervention may improve outcomes in this high-risk population.
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