Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41485132›Full record

ArticleAlzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association2026

Effects of extreme heat on the onset of dementia and all-cause mortality: A 3-year follow-up study in a large population-based cohort in Japan.

Ayako Morita, Hisaaki Nishimura, Tatsuhiko Anzai, Nobutoshi Nawa, Yukako Tani, Katsunori Kondo, Takeo Fujiwara

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Heterogeneous associations of cumulative heat exposure with cognitive decline among older Japanese adults.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Ayako MoritaDepartment of Public Health, Institute of Science Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9764-6067
Hisaaki NishimuraDepartment of Public Health, Institute of Science Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Tatsuhiko AnzaiCenter for Well-being Research Advancement, Institute of Future Science, Institute of Science, Tokyo, Japan.
Nobutoshi NawaCenter for Well-being Research Advancement, Institute of Future Science, Institute of Science, Tokyo, Japan.
Yukako TaniDepartment of Public Health, Institute of Science Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Katsunori KondoDepartment of Community Building for Well-being, Center for Preventive Medical Sciences, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan.
Takeo FujiwaraDepartment of Public Health, Institute of Science Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.

Funding

8020 Promotion Foundation 19-2-06Chiba Foundation for Health Promotion & Disease PreventionJapan Agency for Medical Research and Development JP18dk0110027Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development JP18le0110009Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development JP18ls0110002Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development JP20dk0110034Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development JP21dk0110037Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development JP21lk0310073Japan Foundation For Aging And Health J09KF00804Japan Health Promotion & Fitness FoundationJapan Science and Technology Corporation JPMJOP1831Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 15H01972Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 15H04781Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 15H05059Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 15K03417Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 15K03982Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 15K16181Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 15K17232Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 15K18174Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 15K19241Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 15K21266Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 15KT0007Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 15KT0097Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 16H05556Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 16K00913Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 16K02025Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 16K09122Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 16K12964Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 16K13443Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 16K16295Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 16K16595Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 16K16633Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 16K17256Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 16K17281Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 16K19247Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 16K19267Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 16K21461Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 16K21465Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 16KT0014Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 17K04305Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 17K04306Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 18H00953Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 18H00955Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 18H03018Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 18H03047Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 18H04071Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 18KK0057Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 19H03860Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 19H03901Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 19H03915Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 19K04785Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 19K10641Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 19K11657Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 19K19455Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 19K19818Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 19K20909Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 19K24060Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 20H00557Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 25253052Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 25713027Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 26285138Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 26460828Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 26780328Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare 19FA1012Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare 19FA2001Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare 21FA1012Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare 21K19635National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology 20-19National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology 21-20National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology 24-17National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology 24-23National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology 29-42National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology 30-22National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology 30-30Sasakawa Sports Foundation InnovativeResearchProgramonSuicideCountermeasures(1-4)
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionLong-term effects of repeated extreme heat exposures on dementia onset remain unclear.

methodsWe analyzed 2016 to 2019 Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study data, including 57,178 dementia-free, independent adults (≥ 65) residing ≥ 30 years in the same municipality. Dementia and mortality were identified through public long-term care insurance. Extreme heat exposure was defined as cumulative (sum over 1-3 years, capturing the combined effect of multiple years) or point (days in a single year, estimating each year's independent effect) above the 90th or 99th percentile of local climate. Three-level random-effects logistic regression was applied.

resultsCumulative exposure to extreme heat over 1 to 3 years increased the odds of dementia and the combined outcome of dementia or mortality. Time-lagged analyses showed significant effects for 1-year and 3-year prior exposures but inconsistent or reverse effects for 2-year exposure. DISCUSSION: Extreme heat may accelerate dementia onset or death. Heat adaptation policies for older adults are warranted. HIGHLIGHTS: Evidence is scarce on the impact of repeated extreme heat exposure on dementia onset. Extreme heat relative to local climate norms was associated with higher odds of dementia onset and all-cause mortality in older adults. Adverse effects appear rapidly, within 1 to 3 years of exposure. Heat adaptation strategies should be incorporated into dementia prevention frameworks.

Indexed as

DementiaExtreme HeatMortalityAgedAged, 80 and overCohort StudiesFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansJapanMaleAlzheimer's diseaseclimate changecommunity‐dwelling older adultdeathheat effectother types of dementia

Identifiers

PMID41485132
PMCPMC12765402

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.