Evidence mapPaperPMID 41491485Full record

ArticleWorld journal of surgical oncology2026

Construction and external validation of a prognostic model for survival in hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization: a multicenter retrospective cohort study.

Fangyi Jin, Hanning Miao, Yuefeng Wang, Yongkang Cui, Kejun Gong, Jian Miao, Yuan Sun

Abstract readMulticenter StudyValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in World journal of surgical oncology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Fangyi JinSurgery, the Second Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning Province, 116021, China.
Hanning MiaoStomatology, Shenyang Medical College, Shenyang, Liaoning Province, 110034, China.
Yuefeng WangHepatopancreatobiliary surgery, the Second Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning Province, 116021, China.
Yongkang CuiHepatopancreatobiliary surgery, the Second Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning Province, 116021, China.
Kejun GongEmergency surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, 150001, China.
Jian MiaoHepatopancreatobiliary surgery, the Second Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning Province, 116021, China. miaojiancndl@aliyun.com.
Yuan SunCytobiology, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning Province, 116021, China. sunyuandl@aliyun.com.

Funding

Application Research of Nanoccage Tumor Cell Capture Technology in Early Diagnosis, Treatment and Recurrence Warning of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Tumors 2022JCXKYB04Application Research of Nanoccage Tumor Cell Capture Technology in the Treatment and Prognosis of Patients with Liver, Gallbladder and Pancreatic Cancer LJ212410161029Construction and Clinical Application of Intraoperative Navigation Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Based on the Combination of Augmented Reality and indocyanine Green Molecular Fluorescence Imaging Technology HXLX20240130
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTransarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is a primary treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Despite its benefits, not all patients experience prolonged survival. Hence, this study aimed to develop a prognostic model using data from HCC patients who underwent TACE.

methodsThis study collected patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who received TACE treatment in the Second Hospital of Dalian Medical University from September 2014 to September 2024 and randomly divided them into the training set and the validation set in a 7:3 ratio. Meanwhile, the data of patients who received TACE treatment at Zhongshan Hospital Affiliated to Dalian University from September 2021 to September 2024 were collected for external validation. Univariable and multivariable Cox analyses in the training cohort identified independent risk factors. Based on these factors, two predictive models were established via Cox regression and random survival forest (RSF). The predictive accuracy of models was appraised using the concordance index (C-index) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The calibration of models was assessed via calibration curves.

resultsThis study collected clinical data from 815 HCC patients receiving TACE. Independent risk factors included tumor size, TNM stage, serum alpha-fetoprotein, TACE therapy count, and post-treatment direct bilirubin, lactate dehydrogenase, and gamma-glutamyl transferase levels. In the RSF model, AUCs for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS 0.88 (95% CI: 0.81-0.94), 0.80 (95% CI: 0.74-0.86), and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.67-0.81) in the internal validation cohort, and 0.87(95%CI:0.76,0.98), 0.91(95%CI:0.85,0.97) and 0.89(95%CI:0.82,0.96) in the external validation cohort. The Cox regression model yielded AUCs for OS at 1, 3, and 5 years of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.87-0.96), 0.83 (95% CI: 0.76-0.89), and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.74-0.88) in the internal validation cohort, and 0.86(95%CI:0.75,0.97), 0.89(95%CI:0.82,0.96)and 0.90(95%CI:0.81,0.99) in the external validation cohort. Given its superior AUC and C-index, a more interpretable survival nomogram was built using the Cox model.

conclusionsThe prognostic nomogram, constructed based on routine, interpretable clinical features in this study, may help estimate the risk of death in TACE-treated HCC patients. This tool may provide a crucial reference for decision-making in follow-up treatment and rehabilitation.

trial registrationNot applicable.

Indexed as

Carcinoma, HepatocellularChemoembolization, TherapeuticLiver NeoplasmsAgedFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansMaleMiddle AgedNomogramsPrognosisRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsSurvival RateHepatocellular carcinomaNomogramRandom survival forestTransarterial chemoembolization

Identifiers

PMID41491485
PMCPMC12870106

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.