Evidence mapPaperPMID 41502879Full record

ArticleTranslational pediatrics2025

A risk prediction model for autism spectrum disorder integrating biopsychosocial factors: a systematic review and meta-analysis with multicenter validation.

Lu Zhang, Weicong He, Pujue Huang, Lisha Zhong

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Article in Translational pediatrics, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Lu Zhang *Department of Pediatrics, Luzhou Maternal and Child Health Hospital (Luzhou Second People's Hospital), Luzhou, China.
Weicong He *Department of Pediatrics, Luzhou Maternal and Child Health Hospital (Luzhou Second People's Hospital), Luzhou, China.
Pujue HuangDepartment of Pediatrics, The First People's Hospital of Longquanyi District, Chengdu, China.
Lisha ZhongSchool of Medical Information and Engineering, Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4188-0131

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Early identification of individuals at high risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies and improving outcomes. This study aims to develop a risk prediction model integrating biopsychosocial factors through a systematic review with multicenter validation. Methods: A comprehensive search was conducted across PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Embase for articles on biopsychosocial ASD risk factors during 2010-2023. Two reviewers independently extracted data. Meta-regression analysis of 37 systematic reviews/meta-analyses identified 18 potential risk factors by Stata 16.0. Four core variables were included in the prediction model, while 14 were excluded due to low-quality evidence or insufficient data after screening. Multivariate logistic regression with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) variable selection derived model weights. External validation was performed in a Chinese cohort (n=1,175) from two tertiary hospitals. Model discrimination was assessed via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and clinical utility by decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Analysis of 37 systematic reviews identified four independent predictors of ASD risk: adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) [odds ratio (OR) =2.11; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.61-2.77], preterm birth (OR =3.3; 95% CI: 1.24-7.60), antidepressant exposure during pregnancy (OR =1.17; 95% CI: 1.08-1.21), and perinatal antibiotic exposure (OR =1.52; 95% CI: 1.09-2.12). The risk model formula was: 0.82 × (ACEs) + 1.19 × (preterm birth) + 0.42 × (antidepressant exposure) + 0.21 × (perinatal antibiotic exposure). External validation showed excellent discrimination [area under the curve (AUC) =0.78; 95% CI: 0.75-0.81]. DCA confirmed significantly higher net clinical benefit compared to universal intervention strategies. Conclusions: This study developed a risk prediction model integrating biopsychosocial factors, providing an evidence-based tool for early identification of individuals at high risk for ASD.

Indexed as

adverse childhood experiences (ACEs)Autism spectrum disorder (ASD)perinatal exposurerisk prediction modelssystematic review

Identifiers

PMID41502879
PMCPMC12771143

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.