Short-term - change on physical capacities of football players within few days before ACL-injury: a retrospective case-control study.

purposeAnterior cruciate ligament (ACL) ruptures represent one of the most severe injuries in professional football, often resulting in long rehabilitation, impaired performance, and increased risk of re-injury. The aim of this study was to investigate whether performance parameters derived from match statistics can serve as early indicators of ACL rupture in professional male football players.

methodsA retrospective case-control design was applied. Forty-two male professional football players from the German Bundesliga and 2. Bundesliga with confirmed ACL ruptures between 2016 and 2024 were included, alongside 42 matched controls from the same teams and positions. Match performance data from ten games preceding the injury were analyzed. Parameters included minutes played, total distance covered, number of sprints, maximal speed, pass accuracy, number of duels, and duel success rate. Independent t-tests compared injured and control players across individual matchdays and aggregated intervals (the average values across the last four, three, and two matches before injury). Additionally, odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals were computed based on upper (≥ 75th percentile) and lower (≤ 25th percentile) quartile thresholds to quantify the relative risk associated with extreme performance values.

resultsInjured players showed higher maximum speed that consistently differentiated them from controls, with significant differences at matchday 2 (p = 0.005, OR = 3.42, 95% CI 1.45-8.06) and across all aggregated intervals (p = 0.015-0.031). Injured players also showed significantly fewer minutes played at matchday 2 before injury (p = 0.046, OR = 2.36, 95% CI 1.01-5.51) and across certain intervals (last four and three matches before injury; p = 0.027-0.044). Analysis of matchdays 5-10 revealed no significant group differences for any performance parameter, confirming that relevant performance changes manifest primarily in the immediate pre-injury period. No significant group differences emerged for distance covered, sprint count, pass accuracy, or duel frequency between ACL injured players and controls.

conclusionMaximum speed showed the strongest association with ACL rupture risk, with significant differences at matchday 2 (p = 0.005) and across aggregated intervals (the average values across the last four, three, and two matches before injury). Reduced playing time emerged as an additional indicator. Although distance covered, sprint count, and pass accuracy did not reach statistical significance individually, their temporal patterns revealed a predisposing risk constellation: injured players demonstrated reduced cumulative exposure combined with acute high-intensity spikes at matchday 2, declining technical precision, and increased physical confrontation at matchday 1. This suggests ACL injury risk manifests through deterioration of integrated performance capacity under acute load fluctuations rather than isolated thresholds. Multifactorial approaches integrating biomechanical, physiological, and temporal performance patterns are essential for effective ACL injury prevention in professional football.