Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41518551›Full record

ArticleInfectious diseases and therapy2026

Evaluating the Effectiveness of 2024-2025 Seasonal mRNA-1273 Vaccination Against COVID-19-Related Hospitalizations and Medically Attended COVID-19 Among Adults Aged ≥ 18 years in the United States: An Observational Matched Cohort Study.

Nevena Vicic, Alina Bogdanov, Zhe Zheng, Taylor Ryan, Ni Zeng, Keya Joshi, Tianyi Lu, Machaon Bonafede, Andre B Araujo, Amanda Wilson

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In one paragraph

Article in Infectious diseases and therapy, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Nevena VicicModerna, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA. nvicic@modernatx.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4221-9871
Alina BogdanovReal World Evidence, Veradigm, Chicago, IL, USA.
Zhe ZhengModerna, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA.
Taylor RyanReal World Evidence, Veradigm, Chicago, IL, USA.
Ni ZengReal World Evidence, Veradigm, Chicago, IL, USA.
Keya JoshiModerna, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA.
Tianyi LuModerna, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA.
Machaon BonafedeReal World Evidence, Veradigm, Chicago, IL, USA.
Andre B AraujoModerna, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA.
Amanda WilsonModerna, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionThis study evaluated the effectiveness of Moderna's updated mRNA-1273 vaccine targeting the KP.2 variant, compared to people who did not receive any 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine, in preventing COVID-19-associated hospitalizations and medically-attended COVID-19 among adults aged ≥ 18 years in the United States during the 2024-2025 season.

methodsData were extracted from linked administrative healthcare claims and electronic health records (EHR) for vaccinations from 23 August 2024 through 23 April 2025 and followed through 30 April 2025. We conducted a retrospective matched cohort study with propensity score weighting to adjust for differences between groups to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 outcomes. VE was calculated as 1 minus the hazard ratio (HR) from Cox proportional hazards models.

resultsOverall, 596,248 mRNA-1273 KP.2 vaccine recipients were matched 1:1 to unexposed adults. The mean (standard deviation) age was 63 (17) years, with more than half of the population being 65 years or older. Approximately 70% of individuals had an underlying medical condition making them high-risk for severe outcomes for COVID-19. VE was 52.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 34.8%, 65.8%] against COVID-19-related hospitalization and 39.4% (35.0%, 43.5%) against medically-attended COVID-19 over a median follow-up of 55 (interquartile range 32-77) days in an interim analysis. The VE was sustained throughout the entire study period and shown to be 45.2% (37.7%, 51.8%) against COVID-19-related hospitalizations and 33.1% (30.6-35.4%) against medically-attended COVID-19 over a median follow-up of 127 (interquartile range 84-173) days.

conclusionThe mRNA-1273 KP.2 vaccine demonstrated significant incremental effectiveness in preventing hospitalization with COVID-19 and medically-attended COVID-19 in adults during the 2024-2025 season to date. The VE was sustained with longer median follow up time. These findings support ongoing vaccination efforts to mitigate the public health impact of COVID-19.

Indexed as

COVID-19 vaccineHospitalizationMedically attended COVID-19mRNA-1273 KP.2Vaccine effectiveness

Identifiers

PMID41518551
PMCPMC12924815

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.