Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41519136›Full record

SynthesisThe Lancet. Global health2026

Global estimates of tuberculosis incidence during pregnancy and postpartum: a rapid review and modelling analysis.

Nyashadzaishe Mafirakureva, Anna Cartledge, Isobella Bradshaw, Adrie Bekker, Nicole Salazar-Austin, Sue-Ann Meehan, Landon Myer, Jasantha Odayar, Molebogeng X Rangaka, Peter J Dodd

Abstract readSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in The Lancet. Global health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Tuberculosis in Pregnancy: An Updated Narrative Review.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026
    Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Nyashadzaishe MafirakurevaSheffield Centre for Health and Related Research, School of Medicine & Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK. Electronic address: n.mafirakureva@sheffield.ac.uk.
Anna CartledgeSheffield Centre for Health and Related Research, School of Medicine & Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
Isobella BradshawSheffield Centre for Health and Related Research, School of Medicine & Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
Adrie BekkerDepartment of Paediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa.
Nicole Salazar-AustinDepartment of paediatrics, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Sue-Ann MeehanDesmond Tutu TB Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa.
Landon MyerDivision of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Cape Town, South Africa.
Jasantha OdayarDivision of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Cape Town, South Africa.
Molebogeng X RangakaInstitute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
Peter J DoddSheffield Centre for Health and Related Research, School of Medicine & Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDespite known maternal, perinatal, and infant health risks of tuberculosis during pregnancy, global estimates of incidence remain scarce. Existing estimates are outdated, and do not include the postpartum period, HIV co-infection, age, or specific changes in risk, limiting our understanding of the true scale of disease in this understudied population.

methodsIn this rapid review and modelling analysis, we estimated the global tuberculosis incidence in pregnant and postpartum women using a population-based modelling approach. We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE, with no date or language limits, and included studies reporting tuberculosis incidence in pregnancy or postpartum with suitable comparison groups; we also used Feb 6, 2025, interim data from the ongoing ORCHID cohort. We combined WHO age and sex-stratified tuberculosis incidence data with country-specific population and fertility data to estimate baseline tuberculosis incidence, and applied systematic review-based risk ratios to account for elevated increased risk during pregnancy and postpartum. Uncertainty in all inputs was propagated using standard error propagation formulae and summarised as mean tuberculosis incidence rates and mean incidence rate ratios (IRRs), each reported with 95% quantile-based uncertainty intervals (UIs).

findingsWe identified 37 studies published between 1996 and 2020, of which three were of sufficient quality to provide data for HIV-negative women. One additional study (ORCHID; Odayar et al, unpublished) provided data for women living with HIV. Compared with non-pregnant women without HIV, tuberculosis IRRs were 1·34 (95% CI 1·17-1·54) during pregnancy and 1·91 (1·53-2·39) during postpartum among HIV-negative women. For women living with HIV, IRRs were 5·73 (95% CI 2·64-10·94) during pregnancy and 3·58 (0·85-9·63) postpartum. We estimated 239 500 pregnant women (95% UI 216 300-262 800) and 97 600 postpartum women (90 100-105 200) developed tuberculosis disease globally in 2023, with HIV contributing to 21·3% (19·8-22·8) and 10·6% (9·9-11·3) of cases, respectively. The WHO African region had the highest incidence (110 600 [95% UI 96 700-124 500] in pregnant women and 40 900 [36 300-45 400] in postpartum women), followed by the South-East Asia region (79 900 [64 100-95 700] in pregnant women and 35 900 [30 800-41 100] in postpartum women).

interpretationPregnant and postpartum women face substantial tuberculosis risk, yet remain under-represented in global estimates. Our findings underscore the need for improved surveillance and targeted interventions to reduce tuberculosis incidence in this group.

fundingUK Medical Research Council.

Indexed as

Global HealthPregnancy Complications, InfectiousTuberculosisFemaleHumansIncidencePostpartum PeriodPregnancy

Identifiers

PMID41519136
PMCPMC12916327

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.