ArticleBMC medical informatics and decision making2026
Development and validation of a risk nomogram for predicting recurrence in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation after radiofrequency catheter ablation.
Article in BMC medical informatics and decision making, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Predictors of atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation: a systematic review.The Egyptian heart journal : (EHJ) : official bulletin of the Egyptian Society of Cardiology · 2026Review
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7 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundLimited evidence exists regarding predictors of recurrence in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) following radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA). This study aimed to develop and validate a risk model for post-ablation recurrence in these patients.
methods242 patients were enrolled and randomly divided into a modeling group (n = 169) and a validation group (n = 73) according to 7:3. The echocardiographic parameters, laboratory values and clinical features were used to derive a predictive model. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors.
resultsDuring the 1-year follow-up, 87(36.00%) patients experienced AF recurrence. The nomogram was established by five variables including left atrial volume index (OR1.055, 95% CI: 1.021–1.090, P = 0.001), right atrial volume index (OR1.040, 95% CI: 1.008–1.073, P = 0.014), systemic immune-inflammatory index(OR1.015, 95% CI: 1.001–1.030, P = 0.036), New York Heart Association classification (OR 2.861, 95% CI: 1.282–6.383, P = 0.010), and CHA₂DS₂-VASc score(OR1.417, 95% CI: 1.077–1.864, P = 0.013). The model was developed, an online Dynamic Nomogram ( https://cardiologyresearch.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp ) application via the platform, and subsequently validated. The calculator achieved a C-index of 0.837(95% Cl: 0.774–0.899) in the training cohort and 0.895 (95% Cl: 0.823–0.968) in the validation cohort. The calibration curve showed good consistency between the predictions and observations in the training and validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis and clinical impact curves indicated the clinical utility of the nomogram.
conclusionWe developed a nomogram based on LAVI, RAVI, SII, NYHA classification, CHA₂DS₂-VASc score to estimate the risk of AF recurrence after RFCA. The newly developed nomogram demonstrated good discrimination and accuracy, suggesting its potential utility in predicting AF recurrence. Given its performance, the model is a promising tool; however, it is still in its preliminary stages and requires further validation with larger, multi-center, prospective studies involving diverse populations to confirm its generalizability.
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