Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41519770›Full record

ArticleBMC medical informatics and decision making2026

Development and validation of a risk nomogram for predicting recurrence in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation after radiofrequency catheter ablation.

Yi Yu, Jin-Lan Chen, Guang-Yin Li, Shen-Shen Huang, Ting Wang, Xiao-Kai Li, Yi-Gang Li

Abstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in BMC medical informatics and decision making, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Predictors of atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation: a systematic review.The Egyptian heart journal : (EHJ) : official bulletin of the Egyptian Society of Cardiology · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Yi YuDepartment of Ultrasound, Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, No. 241 Huaihai Road, Shanghai, 200030, P.R. China. yuyichesthospital@163.com.
Jin-Lan ChenMedical Imaging Technology, Shanghai University of Sport, No.399 Changhai Road, Yangpu District, Shanghai, 200438, P.R. China.
Guang-Yin LiMedical Imaging Technology, Shanghai University of Sport, No.399 Changhai Road, Yangpu District, Shanghai, 200438, P.R. China.
Shen-Shen HuangMedical Imaging Technology, Shanghai University of Sport, No.399 Changhai Road, Yangpu District, Shanghai, 200438, P.R. China.
Ting WangDepartment of Cardiology, Xinhua Hospital Affiliated to School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiaotong University, No.1665 Kongjiang Road, Shanghai, 200092, P.R. China.
Xiao-Kai LiMedical Imaging Technology, Shanghai University of Sport, No.399 Changhai Road, Yangpu District, Shanghai, 200438, P.R. China.
Yi-Gang LiDepartment of Cardiology, Xinhua Hospital Affiliated to School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiaotong University, No.1665 Kongjiang Road, Shanghai, 200092, P.R. China. liyigang@xinhuamed.com.cn.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundLimited evidence exists regarding predictors of recurrence in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) following radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA). This study aimed to develop and validate a risk model for post-ablation recurrence in these patients.

methods242 patients were enrolled and randomly divided into a modeling group (n = 169) and a validation group (n = 73) according to 7:3. The echocardiographic parameters, laboratory values and clinical features were used to derive a predictive model. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors.

resultsDuring the 1-year follow-up, 87(36.00%) patients experienced AF recurrence. The nomogram was established by five variables including left atrial volume index (OR1.055, 95% CI: 1.021–1.090, P = 0.001), right atrial volume index (OR1.040, 95% CI: 1.008–1.073, P = 0.014), systemic immune-inflammatory index(OR1.015, 95% CI: 1.001–1.030, P = 0.036), New York Heart Association classification (OR 2.861, 95% CI: 1.282–6.383, P = 0.010), and CHA₂DS₂-VASc score(OR1.417, 95% CI: 1.077–1.864, P = 0.013). The model was developed, an online Dynamic Nomogram ( https://cardiologyresearch.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp ) application via the platform, and subsequently validated. The calculator achieved a C-index of 0.837(95% Cl: 0.774–0.899) in the training cohort and 0.895 (95% Cl: 0.823–0.968) in the validation cohort. The calibration curve showed good consistency between the predictions and observations in the training and validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis and clinical impact curves indicated the clinical utility of the nomogram.

conclusionWe developed a nomogram based on LAVI, RAVI, SII, NYHA classification, CHA₂DS₂-VASc score to estimate the risk of AF recurrence after RFCA. The newly developed nomogram demonstrated good discrimination and accuracy, suggesting its potential utility in predicting AF recurrence. Given its performance, the model is a promising tool; however, it is still in its preliminary stages and requires further validation with larger, multi-center, prospective studies involving diverse populations to confirm its generalizability.

Indexed as

Atrial FibrillationCatheter AblationNomogramsAgedFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRecurrenceRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsEchocardiographyNomogramNon-valvular atrial fibrillationRecurrenceSystemic immune-inflammatory index

Identifiers

PMID41519770
PMCPMC12829022

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.