Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41535905›Full record

ArticleArchives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique2026

Excess life-years and productive life-years lost in Poland through the COVID-19 pandemic and post-pandemic years.

Błażej Łyszczarz, Jakub Wojtasik, Tomasz Zieliński

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Błażej ŁyszczarzDepartment of Health Economics, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Bydgoszcz, Poland. blazej@cm.umk.pl.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5825-5079
Jakub WojtasikStatistical Analysis Centre and Doctoral School of Social Sciences, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Toruń, Poland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6157-5658
Tomasz ZielińskiStatistical Analysis Centre, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Toruń, Poland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0000-5151-4368

Funding

Narodowe Centrum Nauki 2022/47/B/HS4/00081
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPoland’s COVID-19 experience resulted in one of Europe’s most severe mortality shocks, yet the share of lost life-years occurring at working age has not been quantified.

methodsWe analysed weekly all-cause deaths by sex and 5-year age groups for 2011–2019, and fitted fixed effects linear models to forecast expected mortality rates for 2020–2024. Next, we compared predicted and observed rates to estimate excess mortality. These estimates were converted into excess deaths and p-scores, excess Years of Potential Life Lost (eYPLL) and excess Years of Potential Productive Life Lost (eYPPLL).

resultsWe estimated 257,246 excess deaths in Poland over the five-year horizon (13.4% and 12.2% more deaths than expected in men and women, respectively). These deaths yielded 1,921,265 eYPLL and 521,887 eYPPLL, meaning that 27% of all life-years lost fell within working age. Men accounted for 54% of excess deaths but 72% of eYPLL and 79% of eYPPLL. More than half of the female and more than a third of the male productive-life loss accrued between ages 30 and 49. Temporal concentration was marked, 46% of excess deaths and 40% of eYPPLL occurred in 2021 alone. In 2023–2024, negative excess mortality emerged among older adults (aged 55–69), but without fully offsetting losses among the working-age and 70 + population. This translated to negative eYPLL in women in 2024, but persistent productive-age losses were still identified in this group. COVID-19-coded fatalities explained almost two-thirds of eYPLL and 40% of eYPPLL during 2020–2024. Poland’s excess mortality resulted in an average loss of 14–15 productive years for every excess death before retirement.

conclusionsThis study extends usual excess deaths estimates to the productive life lost dimension and shows that the pandemic curtailed not only longevity but also burdened Poland with over half a million labour-force years lost. These losses magnify pre-pandemic labour shortages and add demographic pressure, translating to reduced labour supply and potential output, and underscoring the macroeconomic cost of major health shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Indexed as

COVID-19Excess mortalityLabour forcePolandYears of potential productive life lost

Identifiers

PMID41535905
PMCPMC12805778

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.