Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41543680›Full record

ArticleJournal of endocrinological investigation2026

Associations of long-term waist circumference trajectories with the risk of fragility fractures: a prospective cohort study.

Lu Guo, Shuohua Chen, Nan Zhang, Rui Tang, Wenchao Yao, Shaoxuan Wei, Xiaoli Hou, Lei Xing, Liu Zhang, Shouling Wu and 1 more

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Journal of endocrinological investigation, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Lu GuoSchool of Public Health, North China University of Science and Technology, Bohai Road 21, Caofeidian Dis. Tangshan, Tangshan, 063200, Hebei, China.
Shuohua ChenDepartment of Cardiology, Kailuan General Hospital, Tangshan, Hebei, China.
Nan ZhangDepartment of Orthopedics, Kailuan General Hospital, Tangshan, Hebei, China.
Rui TangThe School of Public Health, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
Wenchao YaoSchool of Public Health, North China University of Science and Technology, Bohai Road 21, Caofeidian Dis. Tangshan, Tangshan, 063200, Hebei, China.
Shaoxuan WeiSchool of Public Health, North China University of Science and Technology, Bohai Road 21, Caofeidian Dis. Tangshan, Tangshan, 063200, Hebei, China.
Xiaoli HouSchool of Public Health, North China University of Science and Technology, Bohai Road 21, Caofeidian Dis. Tangshan, Tangshan, 063200, Hebei, China.
Lei XingDepartment of General Practice, Affiliated Hospital of North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, Hebei, China.
Liu ZhangSchool of Public Health, North China University of Science and Technology, Bohai Road 21, Caofeidian Dis. Tangshan, Tangshan, 063200, Hebei, China.
Shouling WuDepartment of Cardiology, Kailuan General Hospital, Tangshan, Hebei, China.
Faming TianSchool of Public Health, North China University of Science and Technology, Bohai Road 21, Caofeidian Dis. Tangshan, Tangshan, 063200, Hebei, China. tfm9911316@163.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7083-3380

Funding

Central Government-guided Local Science and Technology Development Foundation of Hebei Province 226Z7709G
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesThe relationship between the patterns of WC trajectory and fragility fracture in the Chinese population remains unclear. This prospective study investigated the effect of long-term WC trajectory on fragility fracture based on community-based cohort.

methodsThis prospective study was conducted based on the Kailuan Study and included a total of 47,288 participants (mean age, 56.7 years) free of fragility fracture and with repeated measurements of WC from 2006 to 2014. The WC trajectories (2006-2014) were modeled by group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM), and three trajectories were identified: low-stable group (n = 12,546), medium-stable group (n = 28,532), and high-stable group (n = 6,210). The association between WC trajectories and incident fragility fractures was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models, with stratified analyses and interaction tests conducted by sex (male/female) and age (≤ 65 years / > 65 years).

resultsDuring an average follow-up of 8.31 years, 663 participants developed fragility fractures. After adjusting for potential confounding factors, compared with those in the low-stable group, the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for incident fragility fracture in the medium-stable group and high-stable group were 1.25 (1.01-1.54) and 1.55 (1.12-2.14), respectively. In Individuals aged ≤ 65 years, the medium group and high-stable group had a 35% (HR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.03-1.77) and 98% (HR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.32-2.97) higher fracture risk, respectively.

conclusionsWC trajectories were significantly associated with the risk of fragility fracture, and the association was more evident in aged ≤ 65 years population.

Indexed as

Fractures, BoneOsteoporotic FracturesWaist CircumferenceAgedChinaFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisProspective StudiesRisk FactorsFragility fractureProspectiveTrajectoryWaist circumference

Identifiers

PMID41543680

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.