Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41551297›Full record

ArticleLancet regional health. Americas2026

Uncovering the post-pandemic timing of influenza, RSV, and COVID-19 driving seasonal influenza-like illness in the United States: a retrospective ecological study.

George Dewey, Austin G Meyer, Raul Garrido Garcia, Mauricio Santillana

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Lancet regional health. Americas, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

George DeweyMachine Intelligence Group for the Betterment of Health and the Environment, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115, USA.
Austin G MeyerMachine Intelligence Group for the Betterment of Health and the Environment, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115, USA.
Raul Garrido GarciaMachine Intelligence Group for the Betterment of Health and the Environment, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115, USA.
Mauricio SantillanaMachine Intelligence Group for the Betterment of Health and the Environment, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115, USA.

Funding

NIAID NIH HHS L70 AI194328
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are major contributors to the burden of seasonal influenza-like illnesses (ILI) in the US. The prevention and treatment of ILI varies substantially across age groups and in cost and administration schedule. This study aimed to characterize the timing and ordering of RSV, influenza, and COVID-19 epidemics in the post-pandemic period to inform public health preparedness. Methods: We implemented a series of independent regression models to infer the contribution of each of these diseases to seasonal ILI syndromic indicators. We further implemented anomaly-detection algorithms on data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Syndromic Surveillance Program for the 2022-23, 2023-24, and 2024-25 ILI seasons to identify the timing of onsets and peaks of RSV, influenza, and COVID-19. Findings: A total of 148 state-ILI seasons were analyzed. In 114 out of 148 (77.0%) of analyzed seasons, volume of RSV emergency department (ED) visits peaked before influenza ED visits. The median time difference between peaks of RSV and peaks of influenza was +3.0 weeks (95% percentile range: -7.0, +7.0 weeks; interquartile range: 5.0 weeks). The timing of RSV and influenza onsets were found to occur more synchronously in the 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 ILI seasons. The timing of COVID-19 outbreaks did not show a consistent seasonal pattern across the study period. Interpretation: RSV epidemics frequently reach peak volume before influenza epidemics across the US. Healthcare professionals and public health authorities should anticipate increases in RSV cases and hospitalizations at the start of the annual ILI season and establish infrastructure and planning to handle incoming surges of both RSV and influenza appropriately. Funding: CDC Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics; National Institutes of Health.

Indexed as

Disease surveillanceForecastingInfluenzaInfluenza-like illnessPandemic preparednessRSV

Identifiers

PMID41551297
PMCPMC12804126

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.