Evidence mapPaperPMID 41557003Full record

ArticleArchives of gynecology and obstetrics2026

First trimester prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus by machine learning in twin pregnancies.

Yoram Louzoun, Tamar Michelson, Mar Bennasar, Ran Svirsky, Elisa Bevilacqua, Nadav Kugler, Karl Kagan, Richard Nicholas Brown, Heidy Portillo Rodriguez, Anna Goncé and 14 more

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Archives of gynecology and obstetrics, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

24 authors.

Yoram LouzounDepartment of Mathematics, Bar Ilan University, 5290002, Ramat Gan, Israel. louzouy@math.biu.ac.il.
Tamar MichelsonDepartment of Mathematics, Bar Ilan University, 5290002, Ramat Gan, Israel.
Mar BennasarHospital Clinic de Barcelona, 08036, Barcelona, Spain.
Ran SvirskyDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Shamir (Assaf Harofeh) Medical Center, Zerifin, Israel.
Elisa BevilacquaDepartment of Women and Child Health, Women Health Area, Fondazione Policlinic Universitario Agostino Gemelli IRCCS, Rome, Italy.
Nadav KuglerDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Shamir (Assaf Harofeh) Medical Center, Zerifin, Israel.
Karl KaganMaternal Fetal Medicine Unit, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University Hosp Tubingen, Tubingen, Germany.
Richard Nicholas BrownDivision of Maternal Fetal Medicine, Department of Obstetrics & Gynaecology, McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, Canada.
Heidy Portillo RodriguezDivision of Maternal Fetal Medicine, Department of Obstetrics & Gynaecology, McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, Canada.
Anna GoncéHospital Clinic de Barcelona, 08036, Barcelona, Spain.
Antoni BorrellHospital Clinic de Barcelona, 08036, Barcelona, Spain.
Julia PonceHospital Clinic de Barcelona, 08036, Barcelona, Spain.
Annegret GeipelDepartment of Obstetrics and Prenatal Medicine, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
Adeline WalterDepartment of Obstetrics and Prenatal Medicine, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
Corinna SimoniniDepartment of Obstetrics and Prenatal Medicine, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
Brigitte StrizekDepartment of Obstetrics and Prenatal Medicine, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
Tanja LennartzMaternal Fetal Medicine Unit, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University Hosp Tubingen, Tubingen, Germany.
Armin BauerMaternal Fetal Medicine Unit, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University Hosp Tubingen, Tubingen, Germany.
Federica MeliDepartment of Women and Child Health, Women Health Area, Fondazione Policlinic Universitario Agostino Gemelli IRCCS, Rome, Italy.
Eleonora TorciaDepartment of Women and Child Health, Women Health Area, Fondazione Policlinic Universitario Agostino Gemelli IRCCS, Rome, Italy.
Adi Sharabi-NovDepartment of Statistics, Tel Hai Academic College, Tel Hai, Qiryat Shemona, Israel.
Ron MaymonDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Shamir (Assaf Harofeh) Medical Center, Zerifin, Israel.
Kypros H NicolaidesThe Fetal Medicine Research Center, King's College Hospital, London, UK.
Hamutal MeiriDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Shamir (Assaf Harofeh) Medical Center, Zerifin, Israel. hamutal62@hotmail.com.

Funding

EP PerMed JTC2019-61Israel Ministry of Health #16874
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionWe aimed to develop a machine learning model for first-trimester prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in twin pregnancies using a prospective international, multi-center cohort and identify useful predictive markers.

methodsPregnant women with two live fetuses were enrolled at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation and followed until delivery. GDM was diagnosed at 24-28 weeks' gestation using the two-stage GCT and OGTT tests. Biochemical, biophysical, and blood assessments were conducted at three periods during pregnancy. Multiple machine learning models evaluated demographic, clinical, and laboratory parameters, including maternal factors (BMI, age, medical history), sonographic markers (crown rump length, estimated fetal weight, uterine artery pulsatility index), and blood and biochemical markers (placental growth factors, blood glucose, cell counts). LightGBM, XGBoost, and logistic regression models were compared using area under the curve (AUC) analysis.

resultsAmong 596 women, 99 (16.6%) developed GDM. LightGBM demonstrated superior performance (AUC = 0.72, 95% CI 0.69-0.75). First-trimester high BMI was the strongest predictor, followed by elevated white blood cell counts and platelet levels. Detection rates (DR) were 28% and 42% at 10% and 20% false positive rates (FPR), respectively. Previous GDM was associated with an increased risk for GDM. DISCUSSION: GDM in twins is associated with certain characteristics of the first-trimester. Information from later trimesters has a limited impact. The GDM probability risk score increased with the severity of the treatment. An app to predict this score is available at: twin-pe.math.biu.ac.il.

Indexed as

Diabetes, GestationalMachine LearningPregnancy Trimester, FirstPregnancy, TwinAdultBiomarkersBlood GlucoseBody Mass IndexCrown-Rump LengthFemaleGlucose Tolerance TestHumansPredictive Value of TestsPregnancyProspective StudiesBiomarkersBlood GlucoseMachine learningPrediction of GDMScreening markersTwin pregnancy

Identifiers

PMID41557003
PMCPMC12819435

What Socratic holds

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.