Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41559557›Full record

ArticleBMC cardiovascular disorders2026

Global, regional, and national burden and trends of atrial fibrillation and flutter among individuals aged 55 and older from 1990 to 2021: results from the 2021 global burden of disease study.

Hailong Li, Peng Liu, Qiwei Shen, Hong Chen, Hualong Liu, Jinzhu Hu

Abstract readComparative Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMC cardiovascular disorders, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Hailong Li *Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, No.1 Minde Road, Donghu district, Nanchang, Jiangxi, 330006, China.
Peng Liu *Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, No.1 Minde Road, Donghu district, Nanchang, Jiangxi, 330006, China.
Qiwei Shen *Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, No.1 Minde Road, Donghu district, Nanchang, Jiangxi, 330006, China.
Hong Chen *Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, No.1 Minde Road, Donghu district, Nanchang, Jiangxi, 330006, China.
Hualong LiuDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, No.1 Minde Road, Donghu district, Nanchang, Jiangxi, 330006, China.
Jinzhu HuDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, No.1 Minde Road, Donghu district, Nanchang, Jiangxi, 330006, China. hujinzhu1983@sina.com.

Funding

Double Thousand Talents Project of Jiangxi Province No. jxsq2023201035Jiangxi Province's Main Discipline Academic and Technical Leader Training Program - Leading Talent Project 20204BCJ22029National Natural Science Foundation of China NSFC 82070350
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe rising prevalence of atrial fibrillation and flutter (AF/AFL) in individuals aged 55 and older presents a major public health challenge. However, a systematic analysis of the long-term global burden and trends exclusively within this high-risk demographic is lacking.

methodsData from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2021) study were used to analyze AF/AFL burden in this older population. We analyzed trends in prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). To assess temporal trends independent of demographic changes, the Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) was calculated by fitting a log-linear model to the age-standardized rates. Regional and sex-specific differences were compared across five Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions.

resultsGlobally, from 1990 to 2021, the absolute number of individuals with AF/AFL increased from 19.91 million to 47.86 million, and DALYs rose from 3.08 million to 7.80 million. In contrast, the global age-standardized incidence rate remained relatively stable. The burden increased most rapidly in low-to-middle SDI regions, whereas high-SDI regions showed stabilization in rates. While females experienced a higher absolute burden in DALYs and deaths, males exhibited faster increases in age-standardized rates. The largest prevalence increase was observed in individuals aged 95 and older.

conclusionsOur trend-oriented analysis indicates that global burden of AF/AFL in individuals aged 55 and older has markedly increased. This presents a dual challenge for health systems. Targeted, resource-appropriate prevention and management strategies tailored to specific age, sex, and socioeconomic contexts are urgently needed to address this growing global health concern.

Indexed as

Atrial FibrillationAtrial FlutterGlobal HealthAgedAged, 80 and overAge DistributionAge FactorsDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleGlobal Burden of DiseaseHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceRisk AssessmentAgingAtrial fibrillation and flutterEpidemiological trendsGlobal burden of diseaseSocio-demographic index

Identifiers

PMID41559557
PMCPMC12903532

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.