Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41560078›Full record

ArticleMedicine2026

Global burden of inflammatory bowel disease in Group 20 countries, 1990 to 2021: A systematic analysis with projections to 2050.

Jinping Chen, Zhifeng Liu, Tianyuan Yu, Yingqi Zhang, Jiayue Liu, Mengqian Lu

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Jinping ChenSchool of Acupuncture and Tuina, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China.ORCID 0009-0000-2399-7091
Zhifeng LiuTuina and Pain Management Department, Dongzhimen Hospital of Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China.
Tianyuan YuSchool of Acupuncture and Tuina, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China.
Yingqi ZhangSchool of Acupuncture and Tuina, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China.
Jiayue LiuSchool of Acupuncture and Tuina, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China.
Mengqian LuSchool of Acupuncture and Tuina, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China.ORCID 0000-0002-6625-5474

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), a chronic gastrointestinal disorder, poses significant global health challenges. Analyzing its burden across Group of Twenty (G20) nations helps identify region-specific priorities and guide health policy. This study aims to evaluate temporal trends in IBD incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across G20 countries from 1990 to 2021 and project future burdens through 2050. Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 Study were analyzed. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) of IBD metrics were assessed by sex, region, and sociodemographic index. Temporal trends were quantified using annual percentage change, and predictive modeling was performed using autoregressive integrated moving average, exponential smoothing, and Bayesian age-period-cohort models, validated by root mean square error, mean absolute error, and R² statistics. Between 1990 and 2021, G20 nations experienced declining ASRs for prevalence (48.02 → 44.88/100,000) and mortality (0.60 → 0.52/100,000) but rising incidence (4.22 → 4.45/100,000) and DALYs (17.79 → 18.07/100,000). Absolute cases and deaths nearly doubled. Females had higher prevalence and disability burden, whereas males exhibited higher incidence and mortality. Canada and Germany recorded the highest DALY rates. Projections to 2050 suggest continued growth in absolute burden but declining ASRs, largely driven by population aging and epidemiologic transition. Despite reductions in standardized rates, IBD's absolute burden continues to increase among G20 countries. Persistent sex and regional disparities highlight the need for equitable, sociodemographic index-specific prevention, and management strategies.

Indexed as

Global Burden of DiseaseGlobal HealthInflammatory Bowel DiseasesAdultBayes TheoremDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleHumansIncidenceMalePrevalenceG20Global Burden of Diseaseinflammatory bowel diseaseprevalenceprojection

Identifiers

PMID41560078
PMCPMC12826281

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.