ArticleMedicine2026
Global burden of inflammatory bowel disease in Group 20 countries, 1990 to 2021: A systematic analysis with projections to 2050.
Article in Medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), a chronic gastrointestinal disorder, poses significant global health challenges. Analyzing its burden across Group of Twenty (G20) nations helps identify region-specific priorities and guide health policy. This study aims to evaluate temporal trends in IBD incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across G20 countries from 1990 to 2021 and project future burdens through 2050. Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 Study were analyzed. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) of IBD metrics were assessed by sex, region, and sociodemographic index. Temporal trends were quantified using annual percentage change, and predictive modeling was performed using autoregressive integrated moving average, exponential smoothing, and Bayesian age-period-cohort models, validated by root mean square error, mean absolute error, and R² statistics. Between 1990 and 2021, G20 nations experienced declining ASRs for prevalence (48.02 → 44.88/100,000) and mortality (0.60 → 0.52/100,000) but rising incidence (4.22 → 4.45/100,000) and DALYs (17.79 → 18.07/100,000). Absolute cases and deaths nearly doubled. Females had higher prevalence and disability burden, whereas males exhibited higher incidence and mortality. Canada and Germany recorded the highest DALY rates. Projections to 2050 suggest continued growth in absolute burden but declining ASRs, largely driven by population aging and epidemiologic transition. Despite reductions in standardized rates, IBD's absolute burden continues to increase among G20 countries. Persistent sex and regional disparities highlight the need for equitable, sociodemographic index-specific prevention, and management strategies.
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Registered trials
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