Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41566487›Full record

ArticleJournal of translational medicine2026

Trajectories of adiposity indices and the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality: a prospective cohort study.

Mahdieh Golzarand, Maryam Mahdavi, Behnaz Abiri, Parvin Mirmiran, Fereidoun Azizi

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Article in Journal of translational medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Mahdieh GolzarandNutrition and Endocrine Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, No. 23, Shahid Arabi St., Yemen St., Chamran Exp., Tehran, 193954763, Iran. mahdieh_golzarand@yahoo.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2651-9276
Maryam MahdaviObesity Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Behnaz AbiriObesity Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Parvin MirmiranNutrition and Endocrine Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, No. 23, Shahid Arabi St., Yemen St., Chamran Exp., Tehran, 193954763, Iran. mirmiran@endocrine.ac.ir.
Fereidoun AziziEndocrine Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWhile novel adiposity indices such as the body roundness index (BRI), a body shape index (ABSI), the visceral adiposity index (VAI), and the Clínica Universidad de Navarra-Body Adiposity Estimator (CUN-BAE) index outperform body mass index (BMI) in predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, their long-term trajectories remain unstudied in Iran. We investigated the patterns of the BRI/ABSI/VAI/CUN-BAE index and their associations with the risk of CVD, all-cause mortality, and specific-cause mortality among Iranian adults.

methodsThis prospective cohort study analyzed 11,394 Iranian adults (55.5% women, mean age 41.2 ± 15.0 years) from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (1999–2018). Latent class growth mixture modeling identified trajectories of adiposity indices over a median of 18.0 years. Cox models assessed associations between the trajectories and incident CVD (n = 728), all-cause mortality (n = 532), and cause-specific mortality, adjusting for various socio-demographic, lifestyle, and metabolic confounders.

resultsThree distinct trajectories (low, moderate, and high-increase) emerged for all indices, with the high-increasing trajectories showing the strongest associations for CVD risk, the CUN-BAE index (HR: 2.45, 95%CI: 1.73–3.49), BRI (HR: 2.12, 95%CI: 1.65–2.73), ABSI (HR: 2.02, 95%CI: 1.38–2.95), and VAI (HR: 1.92, 95% CI: 1.49–2.49). Besides, the high-increase in BRI was associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.10–1.96) and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 3.25, 95% CI: 1.85–5.69) compared with the low-increase group. There was no relationship between trajectory in the CUN-BAE index, VAI, and ABSI and risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Notably, no significant associations were observed between any adiposity index trajectories and cancer mortality.

conclusionLongitudinal trajectories of adiposity indices particularly BRI strongly predict CVD and mortality risks in Iranian adults. These findings support the incorporation of dynamic adiposity measures into clinical risk stratification.

Indexed as

AdiposityCardiovascular DiseasesAdultBody Mass IndexFemaleHumansIranMaleMiddle AgedProportional Hazards ModelsProspective StudiesRisk FactorsAdiposityBody roundness indexBody shape indexCancerCardiovascular eventsMortality

Identifiers

PMID41566487
PMCPMC12822110

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.