Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41568385›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in oncology2025

Shifting burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: global patterns and forecasts to 2050 from the GBD 2021.

Enhui Zhou, Feifei Xu, Tianjiao Zhou, Jingyu Zhang, Fan Song, Jianxiang Li, Hongliang Yi, Qingliang Wang, Weijun Huang

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in oncology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Enhui Zhou *Department of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, Shanghai Sixth People's Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
Feifei Xu *Department of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, Shanghai Sixth People's Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
Tianjiao Zhou *Department of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, Shanghai Sixth People's Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
Jingyu ZhangDepartment of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, Shanghai Sixth People's Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
Fan SongDepartment of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, Shanghai Sixth People's Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
Jianxiang LiDepartment of Otolaryngology, Shanghai Sixth People's Hospital Fujian, Jinjiang, China.
Hongliang YiDepartment of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, Shanghai Sixth People's Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
Qingliang WangDepartment of Hepatobiliary-Pancreatic-Splenic Surgery, The Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Weijun HuangDepartment of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, Shanghai Sixth People's Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) exhibits pronounced geographical variation, with a high burden in specific regions. We assessed global, regional, and national trends in NPC burden from 1990 to 2021 and projected estimates to 2050. Methods: We analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study for 204 countries and territories across 21 regions. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rate were estimated, and temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) by socio-demographic index (SDI), sex, and age group. Future burden from 2022 to 2050 was projected using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results: In 2021, there were 118,878 incident cases, 75,359 deaths, and 2,490,191 DALYs due to NPC globally. The global ASIR was 1.38 per 100,000 population (EAPC -1.06), the ASDR was 0.87 (EAPC -2.17), and the age-standardized DALYs rate was 28.91 (EAPC -2.29). Incidence rate peaked at ages 65-69 years (4.23 per 100,000 population), with consistently higher rates in males than in females. East Asia had the highest regional ASIR, and Japan bore the highest age-specific disease burden. Projections indicate continued declines in apparent ASDR and DALYs rates globally to 2050, but rising ASIR in males, particularly in East Asia and high-middle SDI regions. Conclusions: Over the past three decades, global mortality and disability burden from NPC have decreased, whereas incidence has increased in selected populations. The projected rise in ASIR among males in high-risk regions highlights the need for targeted interventions, equitable resource allocation, and sustained surveillance to mitigate future burden.

Indexed as

Bayesian age-period-cohort modelglobal burden of diseaseincidencemortalitynasopharyngeal carcinoma

Identifiers

PMID41568385
PMCPMC12815733

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.