ArticleHealth & justice2026
Tipping the scales: the predictive utility of the PCE-ACE ratio for criminogenic and wellbeing outcomes in a general adult population.
Article in Health & justice, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundAdverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) and Positive Childhood Experiences (PCEs) are each independently associated with a range of adult outcomes, including mental health, substance use, and criminal justice involvement. However, few studies have examined how the balance between these experiences influences outcomes. This study explores the predictive utility of a PCE:ACE ratio. Unlike previous measures of resiliency and risk protection scales that treat risk and protective factors as parallel dimensions, the ratio is population-level heuristic intended to capture the relative balance of positive versus adverse experiences using a single relational metric. Using data from a representative sample of 1,203 adults in Northern Ireland, participants completed validated measures of 13 ACEs and 10 positive childhood experiences (PCEs) A weighted PCE:ACE ratio was calculated, and participants were categorised into high, moderate, or low ratio groups.
resultsFindings showed that a higher ratio was significantly associated with reduced odds of arrest, incarceration, school exclusion, substance use, and mental health diagnosis, even after adjusting for age, gender, and deprivation. Those in the low-ratio group had the highest rates of adverse outcomes. While the ratio offers an intuitive and accessible framework for understanding developmental balance, limitations include the potential for oversimplification of distinct ACE-PCE profiles.
conclusionsThese findings support the feasibility of a ratio-based approach that standardises balance rather than the independent accumulation of risks and strengths, and suggests that a stronger balance of protective experiences may buffer the impact of adversity. Further research is needed to explore threshold effects and interaction dynamics. However, the ratio provides a useful metric and sound basis for capturing population health and the extent to which public investment is tipped in favour of positive or less positive outcomes.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.