Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41594833›Full record

ReviewBrain sciences2026

Structural and Functional Neuroimaging Biomarkers as Predictors of Psychosis Conversion in Ultra-High Risk Individuals: A Systematic Review.

Giovanni Martinotti, Tommaso Piro, Nicola Ciraselli, Luca Persico, Antonio Inserra, Mauro Pettorruso, Giuseppe Maina, Valerio Ricci

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Brain sciences, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Giovanni MartinottiDepartment of Neuroscience, Imaging, and Clinical Science, "G. d'Annunzio" 66100, University of Chieti-Pescara, 66100 Chieti, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-7292-2341
Tommaso PiroDepartment of Neuroscience, Imaging, and Clinical Science, "G. d'Annunzio" 66100, University of Chieti-Pescara, 66100 Chieti, Italy.
Nicola CiraselliDepartment of Neuroscience, Imaging, and Clinical Science, "G. d'Annunzio" 66100, University of Chieti-Pescara, 66100 Chieti, Italy.ORCID 0009-0008-5546-4618
Luca PersicoDepartment of Neuroscience, Imaging, and Clinical Science, "G. d'Annunzio" 66100, University of Chieti-Pescara, 66100 Chieti, Italy.
Antonio InserraDepartment of Neuroscience, Imaging, and Clinical Science, "G. d'Annunzio" 66100, University of Chieti-Pescara, 66100 Chieti, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-7261-5659
Mauro PettorrusoDepartment of Neuroscience, Imaging, and Clinical Science, "G. d'Annunzio" 66100, University of Chieti-Pescara, 66100 Chieti, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-4164-3040
Giuseppe MainaDepartment of Neurosciences 'Rita Levi Montalcini', University of Torino, 10043 Turin, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-2533-140X
Valerio RicciPsychiatric Unit, San Luigi Gonzaga University Hospital, 10043 Turin, Italy.ORCID 0000-0003-1717-2530

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundApproximately 20-30% of ultra-high risk (UHR) individuals transition to psychosis within 2-3 years. Neurobiological markers predicting conversion remain critical for precision prevention strategies.

objectiveTo systematically identify and evaluate structural and functional neuroimaging biomarkers at UHR baseline that predict subsequent conversion to psychosis.

methodsFollowing PRISMA 2020 guidelines, we searched five databases from January 2000 to February 2025. Two independent reviewers screened studies and assessed quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Eligible studies examined baseline neuroimaging measures (structural MRI, functional MRI, diffusion tensor imaging, magnetic resonance spectroscopy) as predictors of psychosis conversion in UHR cohorts.

resultsTwenty-five studies comprising 2436 UHR individuals (627 converters, 25.7%) were included (80.0% high quality). Reduced baseline gray matter volume in medial temporal structures (hippocampus: Cohen's d = -0.45 to -0.68; parahippocampal gyrus: d = -0.52 to -0.71) and prefrontal cortex (d = -0.41 to -0.68) consistently predicted conversion. Progressive gray matter loss in superior temporal gyrus distinguished converters (d = -0.72). Reduced prefrontal-temporal functional connectivity predicted conversion (AUC = 0.73-0.82). Compromised white matter integrity in uncinate fasciculus (fractional anisotropy: d = -0.47 to -0.71) and superior longitudinal fasciculus predicted transition. Elevated striatal glutamate predicted conversion (d = 0.52-0.76). Thalamocortical dysconnectivity showed large effects (Hedges' g = 0.66-0.88). Multimodal imaging models achieved 78-85% classification accuracy.

conclusionsNeuroimaging biomarkers, particularly medial temporal and prefrontal structural alterations, functional dysconnectivity, and white matter abnormalities, demonstrate moderate-to-large effect sizes in predicting UHR conversion. Multimodal approaches combining structural, functional, and neurochemical measures show promise for individualized risk prediction and early intervention targeting in precision prevention strategies.

Indexed as

MRIneuroimagingprecision preventionpredictive biomarkerspsychosis conversionultra-high risk

Identifiers

PMID41594833
PMCPMC12838713

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.