The Untapped Potential of Expert Elicitation in Sports Medicine Epidemiology.

Sports medicine epidemiology has advanced considerably over the past two decades, with standardized surveillance systems and consensus statements improving the quality of data collection and reporting. Yet the field continues to face structural challenges, including small cohorts, heterogeneous samples, and rare outcomes that undermine reproducibility and limit generalizability. In practice, researchers and clinicians frequently rely on implicit expert judgment to bridge these gaps, but such judgments are often undocumented and irreproducible. Expert elicitation offers a structured, transparent approach to formalizing this knowledge into quantitative priors that can complement empirical data within Bayesian analyses. This commentary introduces expert elicitation to sports medicine epidemiology, drawing on applications of the Sheffield Elicitation Framework (SHELF) in our ongoing work. We highlight three key areas where elicitation can strengthen research and practice: 1) studies involving small, sport-specific cohorts, such as Paralympic athletes; 2) analyses of rare or severe events, including catastrophic injuries and sudden illnesses; and 3) underpowered intervention trials, where structured priors can improve interpretation and guide future prevention and treatment strategies. We also share practical insights from our pilot work, including strategies for framing questions, conducting warm-up and challenge exercises, and using real-time visualization to improve accuracy and engagement. Expert elicitation is not without challenges, requiring careful facilitation and appropriate expertise, but it provides a rigorous, reproducible method for transforming clinical judgment into usable data. Wider adoption of this methodology could accelerate progress in athlete health research by formalizing knowledge that already shapes practice but remains largely untapped.