Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41667978›Full record

ArticleBMC neurology2026

Association between METS-IR and incident stroke in a nationwide prospective cohort of non-diabetic Chinese adults.

Yaqin Ye, Nan Xun, Junlin Wu, Miao Wen, Yanbing Liang, Jingguo Wu

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC neurology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Yaqin Ye *Department of General Practice Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat Sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China.
Nan Xun *Department of Endocrinology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China.
Junlin WuDepartment of General Practice Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat Sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China.
Miao WenDepartment of General Practice Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat Sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China.
Yanbing LiangDepartment of General Practice Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat Sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China. liangyb@mail.sysu.edu.cn.
Jingguo WuDepartment of General Practice Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat Sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China. wujguo@mail.sysu.edu.cn.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe metabolic score for insulin resistance (METS-IR) is a novel indicator based on routine clinical parameters and has been validated as a reliable surrogate marker for insulin resistance. However, evidence regarding the association between METS-IR and stroke events remains limited, particularly among non-diabetic adults. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the association between METS-IR and the risk of incident stroke in a nationally representative prospective cohort of Chinese adults without diabetes.

methodsA total of 8,316 nondiabetic participants aged ≥ 45 years were included from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) spanning 2011–2020. METS-IR was calculated via a validated formula incorporating fasting glucose, triglycerides, HDL-C, and BMI. The incidence of stroke was determined based on self-reported physician diagnoses. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Generalized additive models (GAM) was used to assess nonlinear associations, whereas mediation analysis was used to examine the indirect effect of mean arterial pressure (MAP).

resultsIn this prospective cohort of 8,316 nondiabetic adults, elevated METS-IR was dose-dependently associated with incident stroke (adjusted HR = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.28–2.06 for Q4 vs. Q1; p-trend < 0.0001). A nonlinear threshold effect was identified at METS-IR 40.95: below this inflection point, each unit increment corresponded to a 4% increased stroke risk (HR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.03–1.06), whereas no association was observed above it. Mediation analysis suggested that MAP partially mediated the association, accounting for 13.92% of the total effect. In the fully adjusted model, a longitudinal assessment of cumulative exposure (n = 5,693) using Cox proportional hazards models revealed a graded increase in risk, with Q4 exhibiting a 57% greater hazard ratio (HR = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.18–2.09, P = 0.0020).

conclusionsAmong middle-aged and older Chinese adults without diabetes, higher METS-IR was associated with an elevated risk of stroke, characterized by a nonlinear dose–response relationship. Mean arterial pressure may partially explain this association.

Indexed as

Insulin ResistanceMetabolic SyndromeStrokeAgedChinaCohort StudiesEast Asian PeopleFemaleHumansIncidenceLongitudinal StudiesMaleMiddle AgedProspective StudiesRisk FactorsInsulin resistanceMean arterial pressure (MAP)METS-IRNonlinear associationStroke

Identifiers

PMID41667978
PMCPMC12998198

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.