ArticleFrontiers in public health2026
Global trends and future projections of cervical cancer burden: an integrated analysis of GBD 2021, UN population and WHO HPV vaccination data.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Protect her future: Lessons learned from a school and community engagement initiative for HPV vaccine awareness in Lilongwe, Malawi.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: Cervical cancer remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among women, disproportionately affecting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We sought to: (1) characterize temporal and geographic patterns of cervical cancer burden (1990-2021), with a focus on age-related differences; (2) identify attributable risk factors for cervical cancer, emphasizing the impact of HPV vaccination; (3) forecast cervical cancer burden through 2050. Methods: We combined: (a) age-specific female population estimates (UN World Population Prospects 2024), (b) cervical cancer incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, and (c) HPV vaccination coverage (WHO). We calculated age-standardized incidence (ASIR), mortality (ASMR), and DALYs rate (ASDR) using the WHO world standard population. Stratified analyses were performed by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) category and 5-year age groups. Future burdens were projected under current intervention coverage. Findings: From 1990 to 2021, global ASIR, ASMR and ASDR declined by 15, 31 and 32%, respectively, yet absolute cases rose due to population growth and ageing. The greatest burdens remain in low-SDI regions, especially Southern Sub-Saharan Africa, which uniquely saw rising ASIR and ASMR. Women aged 55-59 bear the highest rates, while young women (15-39) experienced a small but significant incidence increase in 92 countries (notably Russia, Brazil and China). Unsafe sex and smoking accounted for the majority of cervical cancer DALYs. A profound disparity in HPV vaccine coverage persists between high- and low-SDI regions. Projections to 2050 indicate a continued rise in absolute case numbers, despite modest declines in age-standardized rates (ASRs). Conclusion: While ASRs show improvement, the growing absolute burden and profound geographic inequities highlight an urgent public health challenge. Accelerating the scale-up of HPV vaccination, screening, and other preventive measures, with a strategic focus on LMICs, is critical to achieving the WHO elimination targets for cervical cancer.
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