Construction of an explainable machine learning model based on SHAP for predicting cardiovascular mortality risk among American cancer survivors.

backgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to be a leading cause of death globally. Cancer survivors experience a significantly increased risk of cardiovascular mortality owing to shared risk factors with CVD; however, dedicated predictive tools for this specific population are currently lacking.

methodsUsing data from 3622 cancer survivors in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), we constructed a predictive model for cardiovascular mortality risk by integrating five machine learning algorithms: Random Survival Forest (RSF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), LASSO-penalized Cox regression (LASSO + Cox), CoxBoost, and Survival Support Vector Machine (SVM). The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) interpretability framework was employed to enhance model explainability. Predictors were selected via univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, and a nomogram was derived from the results of LASSO regression. To foster clinical translation, the optimal model was implemented as an openly accessible, interactive web-based tool named “CardioRisk-CA” (Cardiovascular Risk Calculator for Cancer Survivors). External validation was conducted using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to assess the generalizability of the model.

resultsThe GBM demonstrated the highest predictive performance in the validation dataset (Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) = 0.935, Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) = 0.914). Key predictive variables included age, C-reactive protein (CRP), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), history of stroke, coronary heart disease, heart failure, sex, and marital status. SHAP analysis identified interaction effects between age and stroke, coronary heart disease, and heart failure. The nomogram achieved an AUC of 0.868, indicating strong clinical utility. Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed significant survival differences between high-risk and low-risk groups (P < 0.001). The web-based tool generates interpretable, individualized risk assessments for clinicians and provides researchers to perform external validation with their own datasets. In external validation using the SEER cohort, the GBM model continued to show robust discriminative capability (C-index = 0.815, AUC = 0.866).

conclusionThe developed machine learning model predicts cardiovascular mortality risk in cancer survivors with SHAP-based interpretability. Deployed as an accessible web-based tool, it fosters individualized risk management and facilitates multicenter validation.