Evidence mapPaperPMID 41679324Full record

ArticleLancet (London, England)2026

Adult obesity and risk of severe infections: a multicohort study with global burden estimates.

Solja T Nyberg, Philipp Frank, Sara Ahmadi-Abhari, Jaana Pentti, Jussi Vahtera, Jenni Ervasti, Sakari B Suominen, Timo E Strandberg, Pyry N Sipilä, Seppo Meri and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Lancet (London, England), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Solja T NybergClinicum, Faculty of Medicine, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Helsinki, Finland. Electronic address: solja.nyberg@helsinki.fi.
Philipp FrankBrain Sciences, University College London, London, UK.
Sara Ahmadi-AbhariDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Jaana PenttiClinicum, Faculty of Medicine, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Public Health and Centre for Population Health Research, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
Jussi VahteraDepartment of Public Health and Centre for Population Health Research, University of Turku, Turku, Finland; Turku University Hospital, Turku, Finland.
Jenni ErvastiFinnish Institute of Occupational Health, Helsinki, Finland.
Sakari B SuominenDepartment of Public Health and Centre for Population Health Research, University of Turku, Turku, Finland; The Wellbeing Services County of Southwest Finland, Turku, Finland; School of Health Science, University of Skövde, Skövde, Sweden.
Timo E StrandbergDepartment of Medicine, University of Helsinki and Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland; Center for Life Course Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland.
Pyry N SipiläClinicum, Faculty of Medicine, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Seppo MeriDepartment of Bacteriology and Immunology and Translational Immunology Research Program, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Hospital District of Helsinki and Uusimaa Diagnostic Center, Helsinki University Hospital Laboratory, Helsinki, Finland.
Naveed SattarSchool of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Mika KivimäkiClinicum, Faculty of Medicine, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Brain Sciences, University College London, London, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAdult obesity has been linked to specific infections, but evidence across the full spectrum of infectious diseases remains scarce. In this multicohort study with impact modelling, we examined the association between this preventable risk factor and the incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality of 925 bacterial, viral, parasitic, and fungal infectious diseases, and estimated their global and regional attributable impact.

methodsWe used pooled data from two Finnish cohort studies and repeated analyses in an independent population from the UK Biobank. BMI was assessed at baseline (1998-2002 in the Finnish studies; 2006-10 in UK Biobank), and participants were categorised as having healthy weight (18·5-24·9 kg/m

findingsThe analysis included 67 766 adults (mean age 42·1 [SD 10·8] years; 49 516 [73·1%] females, 18 250 [26·9%] males) from the Finnish cohorts and 479 498 adults (mean age 57·0 [SD 8·1] years; 261 084 [54·4%] females, 218 414 [45·6%] males) from UK Biobank. Participants had no recent history of infection-related hospitalisations at baseline. During follow-up, there were 8230 incident infection cases in the Finnish cohorts and 81 945 in UK Biobank. Compared with individuals of healthy weight, those with class III obesity had a three-times higher risk of infection-related hospital admissions (Finnish cohorts 2·75 [95% CI 2·24-3·37], UK Biobank 3·07 [2·95-3·19]), death (Finnish cohorts 3·06 [1·25-7·49], UK Biobank 3·54 [3·15-3·98]), or either outcome (Finnish cohorts 2·69 [2·19-3·30], UK Biobank 3·07 [2·95-3·19]). The corresponding pooled hazard ratio for either fatal or non-fatal severe infection among individuals with any obesity (classes I-III) was 1·7 (1·7-1·8). This association was consistent across different indicators of obesity (BMI, waist circumference, and waist-to-height ratio), demographic and clinical subgroups, and a wide range of infections (non-fatal and fatal, acute and chronic, bacterial and viral [including subtypes], and parasitic and fungal). Applying these risk estimates to global burden of disease data, the population attributable fractions of infection-related deaths due to obesity were estimated at 8·6% (6·6-11·1) in 2018, 15·0% (12·8-17·4) in 2021, and 10·8% (8·6-13·6) in 2023.

interpretationAdult obesity is a risk factor for infection-related hospitalisations and mortality across diverse pathogen types, populations, and baseline clinical profiles, with evidence suggesting that approximately one in ten infection-related deaths worldwide might be attributable to obesity.

fundingWellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, and Research Council of Finland.

Indexed as

Communicable DiseasesObesityAdultAgedBody Mass IndexCohort StudiesCOVID-19FemaleFinlandGlobal Burden of DiseaseHospitalizationHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPrevalence

Identifiers

PMID41679324
PMCPMC12979006

What Socratic holds

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.