ArticleMedicine2026
Triglyceride-glucose index demonstrates false-positive association with cardiometabolic multimorbidity progression in cardiometabolic disease patients: Observation and Mendelian randomization study.
Article in Medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The Triglyceride-Glucose (TyG) index is a recognized predictor for incident cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs) and cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) in general populations. However, its utility for predicting progression from single CMD to CMM among patients with existing CMD remains unverified. This study combined retrospective cohort analyses (cross-sectional cohorts: China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study [CHARLS]-1, n = 5415; First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical Center, n = 544; longitudinal cohort: CHARLS-2, n = 1866) with Mendelian randomization to evaluate this relationship. Cross-sectional analyses initially indicated positive associations between elevated TyG index and CMM progression (per-standard deviation increase: CHARLS-1 adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.30-1.57; First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical Center adjusted OR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.33-2.31). However, longitudinal analysis showed no significant association after multivariable adjustment (hazard ratio = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.73-1.02). Crucially, Mendelian randomization analysis with sequential exclusion of confounder-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (glucose, triglycerides, and body mass index) revealed no causal relationship (Model 3 inverse-variance weighted OR = 0.647, 95% CI: 0.412-1.014). These findings demonstrate that the apparent association between TyG index and CMM progression in patients with baseline CMD is likely a false-positive result attributable to residual confounding, with no causal link supported by rigorous longitudinal or genetic evidence. Thus, while TyG is valuable for predicting initial CMD onset, it lacks clinical utility for forecasting progression to multimorbidity in established patients, necessitating exploration of alternative biomarkers for this critical transition.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.