ArticleESC heart failure2026
Global burden of heart failure due to cardiovascular diseases, 1990-2021 and predictions to 2035 based on GBD 2021.
Article in ESC heart failure, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
aimsHeart failure (HF) represents a major global health challenge. This study utilized the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset to analyse HF epidemiology from 1990 to 2021 and project disease burden to 2035.
methodsWe analysed GBD 2021 data on HF attributable to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) for 1990-2021. Age-period-cohort modelling assessed the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort on HF. Joinpoint regression analysis characterized temporal trends and annual percentage changes (APC) in the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for HF due to ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and hypertensive heart disease (HHD). The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model projected HF patient numbers and ASPR for 2022-2035.
resultsGlobally, an increased risk of developing HF started at age 60 and after the period 2005-2009. Birth cohorts showed protective factors after 1955-1959. The Joinpoint model suggested that ASPR of HF resulting from IHD gradually decreased since 2019 (APC = -0.74, 95% UI: -0.94 to -0.55, P < .001). HHD showed a continuous upward trend in male patients, while decreasing in females after 2019 (APC = -0.47, 95% UI: -0.74 to -0.20, P < .01). Between 1990 and 2021, CVDs-attributable HF cases and YLDs rose from 20.1 million (95% UI: 17.3-23.4) and 1.92 million (95% UI: 1.28-2.66) to 45.6 million (95% UI: 39.7-52.7) and 4.32 million (95% UI: 2.96-5.94), respectively, representing increases of 127% and 126%. ASPR and age-standardized YLD rates increased by 3.74% and 3.36%. Projections indicate the global HF population will reach 27.0 million (95% UI: 21.6-32.5) males and 21.5 million (95% UI: 16.8-26.3) females by 2035, with stable ASPR.
conclusionsThe rising absolute number of HF patients indicates a substantial CVD-attributable burden by 2035, necessitating enhanced focus on individuals over 60, particularly those with IHD and HHD.
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