ArticleBMJ open2026
Prediction of 6-year mortality in advanced splenomegaly-subtype schistosomiasis: a retrospective cohort study from Hubei, China.
Article in BMJ open, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo develop and validate a mortality-risk prediction model for patients with advanced splenomegaly-subtype schistosomiasis, enabling accurate prognosis assessment and informed resource allocation.
designRetrospective, population-based cohort study using clinical data from a single-centre registry.
settingEndemic regions of Hubei Province, China.
participantsThe study includes 628 patients with advanced splenomegaly-subtype schistosomiasis from the Hubei Provincial Advanced Schistosomiasis Registry between September 2014 and January 2015. The splenomegaly subtype is defined as splenomegaly extending below the umbilical line or with a transverse diameter exceeding the mid-abdominal line. We divided the study population into two cohorts. The derivation cohort included 452 patients selected from several counties within the registry. These patients had a confirmed diagnosis of advanced splenomegaly-subtype schistosomiasis. Only those with complete data were retained. The external validation cohort comprised 176 patients from geographically distinct counties in the same registry, and the same inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied. 10-fold cross-validation was employed to evaluate the model's generalisation on the derivation cohort. OUTCOME MEASURES: 6-year all-cause mortality was the outcome measure. Baseline variables, included age, serum aspartate aminotransferase, albumin, splenectomy history and frequency of ascites ≥5 episodes were analysed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Model performance was assessed via C-statistics, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).
resultsFive predictors were integrated into the mortality risk model. The C-statistic for predicting 6-year mortality was 0.79 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.83) in the derivation cohort, with robust validation in the external validation cohort (0.78, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.86). Simplified models using subsets of predictors showed slight reductions in discrimination (NRI and IDI). Patients with a frequency of ascites ≥5 episodes had significantly lower survival rates and should be given special attention in clinical practice.
conclusionsThe validated prediction model identifies high-risk patients using accessible clinical variables. The approach may optimise prognostication and prioritisation of healthcare resources for advanced schistosomiasis. The model's performance remains to be confirmed in a prospectively enrolled cohort.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.