Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41746988›Full record

ArticlePLOS digital health2026

A novel statistical framework for quantifying risks and benefits of AI automation in screening mammography.

Michael H Bernstein, Maggie Chung, Adam Yala, Grayson L Baird

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PLOS digital health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Michael H BernsteinBrown Radiology Human Factors Lab, Department of Radiology, The Warren Alpert Medical School, Brown University, and Brown University Health, Providence, Rhode Island, United States of America.
Maggie ChungDepartment of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging, University of California, San Francisco, California, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8144-381X
Adam YalaProgram in Computational Precision Health, University of California, Berkeley and University of California, San Francisco, California, United States of America.
Grayson L BairdBrown Radiology Human Factors Lab, Department of Radiology, The Warren Alpert Medical School, Brown University, and Brown University Health, Providence, Rhode Island, United States of America.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

AI has been proposed as a triage or "rule-out" device to reduce radiologist workload, but it is presently unclear how an AI "rule-out" threshold should be determined. We present a framework for determining an optimal threshold. Using a retrospective study design, 114,229 bilateral 2D digital screening mammograms were analyzed from 2006-2023 at a single study site. All mammograms were given an AI score using Mirai, an open-source deep-learning model which provides a 1-year risk score. Several metrics were examined using two thresholds for determining ruled out versus retained cases: 1) Caseload Reduction Rate (CRR; percent of caseload reduced due to rule-out), 2) Gross AI False Omission Rate (G-FOR; probability of a patient having breast cancer if ruled out), 3) AI Net False Omission Rate (N-FOR; probability of a patient having breast cancer if ruled out and the radiologist would have caught in standard care [i.e., no triage]), 4) AI Adjusted Net False Omission Rate (30%) (AN-FOR[30%]; N-FOR adjusted for the hypothetical scenario where radiologists detect an extra 30% of breast cancers among AI retained cases). The two thresholds were risk scores of 0.2 (Youden's J) and 0.05 (AN-FOR[30%]=0). The former is mathematically optimal; the latter reflects a threshold where AI "rule-out" does not introduce any total increase in False Negatives. At the 0.20 threshold, G-FOR, N-FOR, and AN-FOR (30%) are 0.26%, 0.17%, and 0.14%, respectively (223, 141, and 121, respectively, missed cancer cases) and CRR = 75%. At the 0.05 threshold, the G-FOR, N-FOR, and AN-FOR (30%) are 0.12%, 0.07%, and 0.00% (49, 30, and 0, respectively, missed cancer cases) and CRR = 36%. We demonstrate how radiology practices can consider the trade-offs of using different AI scores as "rule-out" thresholds. At the AN-FOR rate of 30%, the Youden's J threshold results in 121 additional missed cancers for a 75% caseload reduction. We estimate no additional missed cancers at a 36% caseload reduction.

Identifiers

PMID41746988
PMCPMC12944777

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.