Evidence mapPaperPMID 41778603Full record

ArticleEuropace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology2026

Burden and age-specific trends of atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter from 1990 to 2023: a growing challenge among younger and middle-aged adults.

Siyuan Tan, Zixi Zhang, Qiuzhen Lin, Tao Tu, Jiayi Zhu, Gaoming Zeng, Fanqi Li, Kangrong Li, Yongguo Dai, Jiabao Zhou and 4 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Substrate ablation as concomitant treatment for left atrial macroreentrant tachycardia (SLICE-LAMRT): rationale and study design.Journal of interventional cardiac electrophysiology : an international journal of arrhythmias and pacing · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Siyuan TanDepartment of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha City, 139 Renmin Road, Furong District, 410011 Hunan Province, People's Republic of China.
Zixi ZhangDepartment of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha City, 139 Renmin Road, Furong District, 410011 Hunan Province, People's Republic of China.
Qiuzhen LinDepartment of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha City, 139 Renmin Road, Furong District, 410011 Hunan Province, People's Republic of China.ORCID 0009-0008-6696-4730
Tao TuDepartment of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha City, 139 Renmin Road, Furong District, 410011 Hunan Province, People's Republic of China.
Jiayi ZhuDepartment of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha City, 139 Renmin Road, Furong District, 410011 Hunan Province, People's Republic of China.
Gaoming ZengDepartment of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha City, 139 Renmin Road, Furong District, 410011 Hunan Province, People's Republic of China.ORCID 0009-0005-9215-6073
Fanqi LiDepartment of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha City, 139 Renmin Road, Furong District, 410011 Hunan Province, People's Republic of China.ORCID 0000-0003-1936-8406
Kangrong LiDepartment of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha City, 139 Renmin Road, Furong District, 410011 Hunan Province, People's Republic of China.
Yongguo DaiDepartment of Pharmacy, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha City, Hunan Province, People's Republic of China.ORCID 0000-0002-9023-5211
Jiabao ZhouThe First Detention Area, Tanzhou Prison of Hunan Province, Changsha City, Hunan Province, People's Republic of China.ORCID 0009-0004-8547-9491
Cancan WangThe First Detention Area, Central Hospital of Hunan Provincial Prison Administration, Changsha City, Hunan Province, People's Republic of China.
Chan LiuDepartment of International Medicine, the Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha City, Hunan Province, People's Republic of China.
Yichao XiaoDepartment of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha City, 139 Renmin Road, Furong District, 410011 Hunan Province, People's Republic of China.ORCID 0000-0003-4535-3339
Qiming LiuDepartment of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha City, 139 Renmin Road, Furong District, 410011 Hunan Province, People's Republic of China.ORCID 0000-0002-5213-2668

Funding

Chinese Society of Cardiology's Foundation CSCF2024B02Clinical Medical Technology Innovation GuidanceHunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China 2021JJ30033Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China 2023JJ30791Hunan Science and Technology Agency 2021SK53519Key Project of Hunan Provincial Science and Technology Innovation 2024JK2119National Natural Science Foundation of China 82270337National Natural Science Foundation of China 82300357National Natural Science Foundation of China 82470333
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsThe burden of atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter (AF/AFL) has increased, but age-specific patterns across World Bank income levels (WBILs) remain unclear. METHODS AND

resultsUsing the Global Burden of Disease 2023 estimates, we assessed age- and WBIL-stratified trends in prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for AF/AFL from 1990 to 2023, employing age-period-cohort analysis and joinpoint regression. Mortality attributable to six modifiable risk factors was quantified based on comparative risk assessment estimates. Projections of AF/AFL burden for 2024-48 were generated using Bayesian age-period-cohort models. In 2023, AF/AFL affected 58.99 million prevalent cases, 5.02 million incident cases, 376 862 deaths, and 9.26 million DALYs, with the absolute burden concentrated in adults aged ≥ 65 years. From 1990 to 2023, age-standardized prevalence (ASPR) and incidence rate (ASIR) increased, while mortality rate (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) remained stable. High-income countries showed increases across all metrics, upper-middle-income countries had rising ASPR/ASIR and decreasing ASMR/ASDR, and lower-middle- and low-income countries showed consistent increases across all metrics. Among younger (30-44 years) and middle-aged (45-64 years) adults, all metrics increased, while in older adults, only ASPR rose. High systolic blood pressure was the leading attributable risk factor, with larger contributions from high body mass index, smoking, and alcohol use in younger and middle-aged adults. Projections indicated modest declines in ASPR, stable ASIR, and increasing ASMR/ASDR through 2048.

conclusionDespite the concentrated burden in older adults, mortality- and disability-related burden is rising in younger and middle-aged populations, with significant variation across WBILs.

Indexed as

Atrial FibrillationAtrial FlutterAdultAgedAge DistributionAge FactorsBayes TheoremCost of IllnessDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleGlobal Burden of DiseaseHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceAtrial fibrillationAtrial flutterGlobal Burden of DiseaseWorld Bank income levels

Identifiers

PMID41778603
PMCPMC13034541

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.