Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41779771›Full record

ArticlePloS one2026

Near Neutral Selectionist Theories (NNST) for SARS-CoV-2 suggested by the substitution-mutation ratio (c/µ) analysis.

Chun Wu, Nicholas J Paradis

Abstract read
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Article in PloS one, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Chun WuDepartment of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Rowan University, Glassboro, New Jersey, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0176-3873
Nicholas J ParadisDepartment of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Rowan University, Glassboro, New Jersey, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4402-7315

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

A definitive test to measure genome-wide fitness effects of any nucleotide mutation, including translated regions (TRs) and untranslated regions (UTRs), is essential to help resolve the decades-long neutralist-selectionist debate regarding mutation-mediated species evolution. The precise boundary, composition, and abundance of nearly neutral mutations remain disputed, highlighting the need for a rigorous framework supported by empirical sequence data. Our substitution-mutation rate ratio test (c/μ) might provide such a framework. c/μ compares the ratio of how often mutations fix into the population (substitution rate, c) with their expected arrival (mutation rate, µ), which classifies each mutation type (c/µ > 1: adaptive; c/µ = 1: neutral; c/µ < 1: deleterious). We previously showed that SARS-CoV-2 exhibits L-shaped distributions of fitness effects (DFEs) and a strict molecular clock, and mutation type proportions consistent only with the Near-Neutral Balanced Selectionist Theory (NNBST) and not with conventional molecular evolution theories. However, a theoretical explanation for incidences of non-strict clock behavior in several SARS-CoV-2 segments are not formalized. Here, we extended c/μ analysis to 49 segments of SARS-CoV-2 (26 TRs, 12 UTRs, and 10 transcriptional regulatory sequences (TRSs)) and provide formal, mathematical frameworks for our NNBST and Near-Neutral Unbalanced Selectionist Theory (NNUST) to explain non-strict clock behavior. All 49 segments displayed L-shaped DFEs: 24 segments (mostly TRs) supported molecular clocks and balanced effects of near neutral mutations, consistent with NNBST; meanwhile, 25 segments (mostly UTRs/TRSs) did not support molecular clocks or balancing of near neutral mutations, consistent with NNUST. Numerous violations of Selectionist Theory (ST), Kimura's Neutral Theory (KNT), and Ohta's Nearly Neutral Theory (ONNT) were observed, but none for NNBST or NNUST. Together, these results support a unified Near-Neutral Selectionist Theory (NNST), combining neutral and selectionist perspectives to better explain the molecular evolution of SARS-CoV-2.

Indexed as

MutationSARS-CoV-2Selection, GeneticCOVID-19Evolution, MolecularGenome, ViralHumansModels, GeneticMutation Rate

Identifiers

PMID41779771
PMCPMC12959723

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.