Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41781873›Full record

ArticleBMC plant biology2026

Genetic evaluation of flowering, maturity time and productivity in almond (Prunus dulcis): heritability estimates and breeding value predictions.

María Del Mar Gómez-Abajo, Thomas M Gradziel, Patrick J Brown, Federico Dicenta, Pedro José Martínez-García

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Article in BMC plant biology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

María Del Mar Gómez-AbajoDepartment of Plant Breeding, CEBAS-CSIC, PO Box 164, Espinardo, Murcia, E-30100, Spain.
Thomas M GradzielDepartment of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA, 95616, USA.
Patrick J BrownDepartment of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA, 95616, USA.
Federico DicentaDepartment of Plant Breeding, CEBAS-CSIC, PO Box 164, Espinardo, Murcia, E-30100, Spain.
Pedro José Martínez-GarcíaDepartment of Plant Breeding, CEBAS-CSIC, PO Box 164, Espinardo, Murcia, E-30100, Spain. pjmgarcia@cebas.csic.es.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAlmond [Prunus dulcis (Mill.) D.A. Webb] is a major nut crop with high genetic complexity due to its heterozygosity and self-incompatible origin. In this study, genetic parameters for flowering, maturity and productivity, three key complex traits in almond breeding, were estimated using classical methods (midparent-offspring regression and between/within family variance components) as well as a Bayesian linear mixed model.

resultsA comprehensive dataset from the CEBAS-CSIC Almond Breeding Program (CC-ABP), comprising over 17,500 individuals and more than 30 years of historical phenotypic records, was used to generate the first complete pedigree and evaluate trait inheritance. Narrow-sense and broad-sense heritability estimates were obtained, showing substantial variation across traits and methods, with the highest values derived from classical approaches. Bayesian mixed models, implemented via the MCMCglmm R package, allowed for the estimation of breeding values (EBVs), repeatability, and variance components under unbalanced data conditions. Repeatability estimates ranged from 0.15 to 0.56. EBVs were calculated for all individuals, including those without phenotypic records, enabling the construction of trait-specific rankings for early or late flowering, maturity and productivity. Reliability values were used to refine these rankings, improving the accuracy of parental selection. Genetic trends based on EBVs revealed changes in breeding objectives over time and highlighted the limited genetic progress achieved through phenotypic selection alone.

conclusionsThe integration of the complete pedigree, EBVs, and trait rankings offers a robust framework to optimize crossing strategies. This work lays the groundwork for incorporating genomic selection into almond breeding efforts, improving selection efficiency for traits of agronomic importance.

Indexed as

FlowersPlant BreedingPrunus dulcisBayes TheoremPhenotypeQuantitative Trait, Heritablealmondbreedingfloweringgenetic trendsinheritancematuritymixed modelsproductivity

Identifiers

PMID41781873
PMCPMC13067441

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.