Evidence mapPaperPMID 41782046Full record

ArticleJournal of health, population, and nutrition2026

Fasting blood glucose trajectories and atherosclerosis risk: a longitudinal cohort study with threshold analysis in Chongqing, China.

Na Li, Chun-Mei Fei, Feng Tang, Xian-Shu Lin, Bing-Rui Yang, Jun Guo, Li-An-Sheng Wu, Yin-Yin Xia, Chuan Zhang, Li Xu

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Article in Journal of health, population, and nutrition, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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5 · Who and what money

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10 authors.

Na Li *Department of Health Management Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China.
Chun-Mei Fei *Department of Health Management Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China.
Feng TangSchool of Public Health, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China.
Xian-Shu LinSchool of Public Health, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China.
Bing-Rui YangSchool of Public Health, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China.
Jun GuoSchool of Public Health, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China.
Li-An-Sheng WuSchool of Public Health, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China.
Yin-Yin XiaSchool of Public Health, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China. 100118@cqmu.edu.cn.
Chuan ZhangDepartment of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China. heartzc@hospital.cqmu.edu.cn.
Li XuDepartment of Health Management Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China. 51112099@qq.com.

Funding

111Project Yuwaizhuan (2016)32Chongqing Science and Technology Bureau CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX1680Smart Medicine Research Project of Chongqing Medical University No. ZHYX202103Youth Innovation Team Development Support Program of Chongqing Medical University W0083
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAtherosclerosis, the primary pathological basis of cardiovascular diseases, exhibits a strong association with glucose metabolism dysregulation. While cross-sectional studies have linked fasting blood glucose (FBG) to atherosclerosis risk, the dose-response relationship and threshold characteristics of long-term FBG trajectories remain poorly characterized. This retrospective cohort study aimed to investigate longitudinal FBG trajectory patterns and their associations with atherosclerosis risk prevalence, incidence, and recovery in Chongqing, China, while also identifying population-specific risk thresholds.

methodsBased on the three-year longitudinal follow-up data collected annually from 2017 to 2019, a population-based trajectory model (GBTM) was adopted to identify the dynamic trajectory of FBG. The association between FBG and atherosclerosis risk was analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. Restricted cubic splines (RCS) were used to assess the non-linear relationship between FBG and atherosclerosis risk and to determine risk thresholds. Confounding factors such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, and lipids were adjusted for in the regression models, and subgroup analyses were performed to examine the interactions of age, sex, and BMI.

resultsLongitudinal analysis showed that compared with the Trajectory Normal Glucose Regulation (NGR) group, the Trajectory Prediabetes Mellitus group (Pre-DM) group had significantly higher prevalence (OR: 2.02, 95% CI: 1.63-2.51) and incidence (OR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.15-2.39) of atherosclerosis risk. The Trajectory Pre-DM group also had a significantly lower likelihood of atherosclerosis risk recovery than the Trajectory NGR group (OR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.39-0.79). Dose-response analysis revealed a non-linear association between FBG and atherosclerosis risk prevalence, with a risk threshold at 5.10 mmol/L. This suggests that the atherosclerosis risk threshold in Chongqing is significantly lower than the international prediabetes standard of 5.60 mmol/L. Subgroup analyses showed sex and age differences, with lower thresholds in women and younger individuals.

conclusionsLong-term elevation of FBG was associated with increased atherosclerosis risk. The study suggests that intervention strategies should be based on dynamic blood glucose trajectories and population-specific thresholds, especially lower thresholds for women and younger individuals. This study provides evidence-based support for regional atherosclerosis risk prevention and control.

Indexed as

AtherosclerosisBlood GlucoseFastingPrediabetic StateAdultAgedChinaFemaleHumansIncidenceLongitudinal StudiesMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsBlood GlucoseAtherosclerosis riskFasting blood glucoseGroup-based trajectory modelLongitudinal studyPrediabetes mellitusThreshold analysis

Identifiers

PMID41782046
PMCPMC13020111

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.