Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41787351›Full record

ArticleBMC pediatrics2026

Novel biomarker-based prediction model for coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease.

Meng Wang, Jiegang Deng, Chunquan Cai, Bei Liu, Xuan Zhang

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC pediatrics, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Meng WangDepartment of Cardiology, Tianjin Children's Hospital (Tianjin University Children's Hospital), Tianjin, 300134, China.
Jiegang DengDepartment of Cardiology, Tianjin Children's Hospital (Tianjin University Children's Hospital), Tianjin, 300134, China.
Chunquan CaiDepartment of Children's Research Institute, Tianjin Children's Hospital, Tianjin University Children's Hospital, Tianjin, 300134, China.
Bei LiuDepartment of Pediatrics, Tianjin Hongqiao Hospital, Tianjin, 300131, China.
Xuan ZhangDepartment of General Internal Medicine (Nephrology Focus), Tianjin Children's Hospital, Tianjin University Children's Hospital), No. 238, Longyan Road, Beichen District, Tianjin City, 300134, China. zhangxuan20250@163.com.

Funding

Tianjin Key Medical Discipline(Specialty) Construction Project TJYXZDXK-040A
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveThis study aimed to develop and validate a biomarker-based prediction model for assessing the individual risk of coronary artery lesions (CAL) in Kawasaki disease (KD).

methodsA retrospective analysis was performed on 345 pediatric KD patients admitted between June 2018 and June 2022. Patients were randomly divided into training (n = 241) and validation (n = 104) sets. Univariate analysis identified candidate predictors, and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression was used for feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression and machine learning models—random forest (RF), support vector machine, and k-nearest neighbors—were developed. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. A nomogram was constructed, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were applied to interpret feature contributions.

resultsSeven biomarkers were significantly associated with CAL in univariate analysis (P < 0.05). LASSO and multivariable logistic regression analysis identified age, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, interleukin-6, calprotectin, endothelial microparticles, Matrix Metalloproteinase-9, and Galectin-3 as independent predictors. The RF model demonstrated superior performance, with AUCs of 0.888 (training) and 0.860 (validation). SHAP analysis confirmed these three variables as the top contributors to CAL prediction. The nomogram exhibited strong calibration and clinical utility.

conclusionThe machine learning-based prediction model incorporating novel biomarkers enables individualized risk assessment for CAL development in KD patients. This model exhibits excellent predictive performance and clinical applicability, facilitating early identification of high-risk patients and the implementation of targeted interventions, thereby optimizing healthcare resource allocation and improving long-term cardiovascular outcomes.

Indexed as

Coronary Artery DiseaseMucocutaneous Lymph Node SyndromeBiomarkersChild, PreschoolFemaleGalectin 3HumansInfantInterleukin-6Leukocyte L1 Antigen ComplexLogistic ModelsMachine LearningMaleMatrix Metalloproteinase 9Natriuretic Peptide, BrainNomogramsBiomarkersGalectin 3Interleukin-6Leukocyte L1 Antigen ComplexMatrix Metalloproteinase 9Natriuretic Peptide, BrainPeptide Fragmentspro-brain natriuretic peptide (1-76)BiomarkersCoronary artery lesionsKawasaki diseaseMachine learningPrediction model

Identifiers

PMID41787351
PMCPMC13072630

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.