ArticleCell2026
Dynamics of natural selection preceding human viral epidemics and pandemics.
Article in Cell, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Will there be a warning for the next pandemic?Science advances · 2026Article
- Standing HA phenotypic breadth shapes H5N1 cross-host potential.Research square · 2026Article
- COVID-19 vaccination induces cross-neutralisation of sarbecoviruses related to SARS-CoV-2.NPJ vaccines · 2026Article
- Rapid phylogenomic analysis for viral surveillance and metagenomic profiling with Omni2Tree.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- The emergence and molecular evolution of H5N1 influenza viruses in United States dairy cattle.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Dispersal, adaptation and persistence of H5N1 in the sub-Antarctic and Antarctica.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
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8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Using a phylogenetic framework to characterize natural selection, we investigate the hypothesis that zoonotic viruses require adaptation prior to zoonosis to sustain human-to-human transmission. Examining the zoonotic emergence of Ebola virus, Marburg virus, mpox virus, influenza A virus, and SARS-CoV-2, we find no evidence of a change in selection intensity immediately prior to outbreaks in humans compared with typical selection within reservoir hosts. We found a change in selection on SARS-CoV in an intermediate host. We conclude that extensive pre-zoonotic adaptation is not necessary for human-to-human transmission of zoonotic viruses. In contrast, the reemergence of H1N1 influenza A virus in 1977 was preceded by a shift in selection intensity, consistent with the hypothesis of passage in a laboratory setting. Holistic phylogenetic analysis of selection regimes can be used to detect evolutionary signals of host switching or laboratory passage, providing insight into the circumstances of past and future viral emergence.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.