ArticleWomen's health (London, England)
Trends and projections of overweight and obesity among midlife women in the United States, 1990-2050: A sub‑study of the Global Burden of Disease 2021.
Article in Women's health (London, England). The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundOverweight and obesity are rising globally. During perimenopause years, declining estrogen and changes in body composition increase visceral fat and insulin resistance, increasing cardiometabolic risk.
objectiveTo estimate trends in overweight and obesity among U.S. women aged 40-64 years, examine variations by age and state, and project prevalence to 2050.
designSecondary analysis of publicly available body mass index (BMI) data accessed through the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Health Data Exchange, using pooled cross-sectional estimates and hierarchical logistic growth modeling.This sub‑study is not part of the official GBD analysis.
methodsHarmonized data from the GBD Health Data Exchange integrated National Health Interview Survey, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System microdata (1990-2021) for nonpregnant women aged 40-64 years, with calibration of self-reported BMI to measured NHANES data. BMI categories followed WHO cutoffs. Weighted estimates were age-standardized, and hierarchical logistic models projected state-specific trends to 2050. The pooled sample included 150,842 women, representing about 90 million weighted person-years. All data were de-identified and publicly available; ethics approval and consent were not required.
resultsCombined overweight/obesity prevalence increased from 49.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 45.8-52.2; 17.7 million (95% UI 16.5-18.8 million)) in 1990 to 74.2% (95% UI 68.8-79.1; 33.4 million (95% UI 31.0-35.6 million)) in 2021, and projected to reach 83.4% (95% UI 75.5-88.3; 41.7 million (95% UI 37.8-44.2 million)). In 2021, rates ranged from 68.3% in Colorado to 82.8% in Mississippi.
conclusionOverweight and obesity among midlife women have increased sharply with a continuing shift from overweight to obesity. Menopause-specific preventive strategies and policies promoting physical activity and healthy diet are critical to slow future increases.
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